Quick Jabs: Mayweather/Hatton 24/7 Continued, Fights That Must Happen, Fights That No One Cares To See, A Must-See Prospect And A Bad Idea

All right. It's settled. I think I'll just go with "Quick Jabs" for these collections of musings from now on. Until I think of something better. Maybe I'll even come up with a logo or somethin'.

• The final scene in the most recent episode of HBO's Mayweather/Hatton 24/7 documentary series was absolutely spine-tingling: A palpably intense Ricky Hatton sitting in his car, bucking his playful image and declaring resolutely that he wanted to win more than Floyd Mayweather. Summarized, it doesn't sound very special, but the contrast, both in Hatton's tone compared to his usual nature and in the photography itself, was really something. My affection for Hatton continues to grow, as does my disinterest in Mayweather's constant harping about how much money he has. It's fascinating to see how the series has a number of writers hedging their bets about Mayweather blowing out Hatton. I've never thought this was going to be as easy as some predicted; snide remarks that Mayweather would dispatch with Hatton as easily as he did Arturo Gatti have been way out of line. Hatton is significantly more versatile, having proven he can win via all-out mauling or controlled, safety-first boxing, and has beaten significantly better fighters than Gatti ever did. But I don't want to get ahead of myself. The point of the series is to promote the fight, and it's easier to promote if the show emphasizes Hatton's chances. Scenes like the one in the car do that incredibly well.
• We'll find out by the end of this week whether Manny Pacquiao fights Juan Manuel Marquez in March or David Diaz. On the off-chance that Google search algorithms pick up this post when an official with Top Rank, Pacquiao's main promoter, is playing on the web, let me once again stress that Pacquiao must, must, must fight Marquez. There is not a more important fight in boxing right now than a rematch between these two top-five "pound for pound" best, to settle unfinished business from their mightily entertaining 2004 draw. Last time Marquez was to blame for the rematch falling through, when he demanded too much money. This time if it fails, the blame is entirely with Pacquiao. Even Top Rank head honcho Bob Arum admits that Marquez promoter Golden Boy has been "reasonable" in contract demands, and Marquez is willing to move up in weight from 130, where Pacquiao has begun to strain, to 132 or 135. While I'm at it, I'd like to again lobby for Bernard Hopkins to take on Joe Calzaghe at light heavyweight (175 lbs.); it's arguably the second most important fight yet to be scheduled. The two remarkably spry old men are two more of the top-five pound for pound fighters, with Mayweather rounding out the other slot. Word is that Hopkins is being difficult, and no surprise there. His handlers want a rematch with Roy Jones instead, which may make sense financially and aesthetically but is far less preferable in terms of settling legacies. Boxing's on too much of a hot streak not to make Hopkins/Calzaghe and Pacquiao/Marquez happen. Should one or both falter, all this great momentum will have been for naught.
• Light heavyweight Antonio Tarver is the rare culprit in not making a big fight happen in 2007, when he ducked Chad Dawson by insisting on absurd money. He's up against an unknown Saturday night in a Showtime triple-header also featuring junior middleweight (154 lbs.) Vernon Forrest and flyweight (112 lbs.) Nonito Donaire in against heavy underdogs. I'm not sure where anyone got the idea that this was a good card, but I'll probably watch if I'm around and root for Tarver to lose. This is a bizarrely atypical card in a year loaded with amazing ones, although, at least Donaire's opponent is recognized as something of a contender. I'm predicting victories for the guys I know.
  
• While I'm dispensing advise, if you haven't had a chance to ogle prospect James Kirkland yet, I highly recommend you tune in to Showtime Friday night. Mike Tyson comparisons are thrown around so much in boxing as to be meaningless -- witness Joan Guzman's nickname "Little Tyson," even though he fights nothing like him and hasn't knocked anyone out in forever -- but Kirkland, a junior middleweight, does a lot of what Tyson did. Crushing power. Underrated speed. A single-minded adherence to destroy, destroy, destroy. While Mike Tyson is getting more headlines with his jailtime lunch menu than all of what's good in boxing these days, Kirkland's doing what Tyson used to in the ring. His opponent Friday is another nobody, but Kirkland isn't far away from a title shot or at least a fight where we find out if he's for real.
  
• It's old news, but Jermain Taylor's decision to go with Ozell Nelson as his trainer for a 166-pound rematch with Kelly Pavlik in February is out of the frying pan, into the fire. I'd lobbied for Taylor to part ways with Emmanuel Steward, given the unproductive nature of their relationship thus far, and everyone thought former Taylor trainer Pat Burns would return, since Burns led him to the middleweight (160 lbs.) championship. Instead, the unproven Nelson, a close Taylor adviser who had a bad relationship with Burns, is in the driver's seat. This is an awful decision. Awful. By the sound of Burns' interview with ESPN, Taylor wanted Burns to return and told him so. Taylor just keeps making the wrong choices in the end, from settling with Nelson for reasons no one yet understands to not throwing the uppercut in the 2nd round against Pavlik when that would have ended Taylor's night in a victory instead of in a heap, slumped over unconscious. It's sad, because Taylor has a gift and he's immensely likable, but this bodes for another devastating KO in his near future.

Tragedy And Triumph

Fernando Vargas fell into the same category for me as Erik Morales. Both boxers fought with tremendous bravery. Both had massive fan bases that stuck with them through thick and thin, both literally and figuratively, since both had gluttonous impulses that frequently forced them to shed ample pounds before going into battle. Both, for reasons that are fairly arbitrary, rubbed me the wrong way. Both, however, won my respect.

Vargas, after losing Friday night to Ricardo Mayorga, will join Morales in retirement now. Vargas was never as good as Morales, even if they ended their career on similar notes: Losing streaks, and one last losing hurrah. When 2007 is said and done, there are a lot of labels we might be able to slap on it. "The year of British fighters," perhaps, especially if Ricky Hatton beats Floyd Mayweather. My vote is going to be for "the year boxing definitively proved it's back," even if it never really went away. But another contender is going to be "the year a generation of warriors departed." Arturo Gatti, Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera all retired in 2007, leaving behind them a wake of some of the most thrilling battles of all time. Diego Corrales, who won what I consider the greatest fight of all time in 2005, died this year. Vargas may be a notch lower than those four, but he fought in the same "never say die" style, and his pyrrhic 2000 loss to Felix Trinidad was truly great; one scribe called it today the greatest junior middleweight (154 lbs.) title fight ever.

It's tragic that Vargas' bravery in that fight probably left him in that dreaded boxing state: "Never the same." Against one of the hardest punchers ever, Vargas just kept getting up over and over again. Nobody can do that and not pay in the long-term. I'm not saying Vargas would have beaten Oscar De La Hoya or Shane Mosley later in his career if his corner had thrown in the towel sooner against Trinidad. But he probably would have had a better chance. That Trinidad battle, combined with Vargas' ongoing war with the scale -- he lost 100 pounds and gained some anemia along the way to his 164-pound matchup with Mayorga -- put wear and tear on his body that leaves him old, physically, at 29 years. It's wise that he's leaving now, when his body has absolutely nothing left to give him and he apparently has an acting career ahead of him. Quitting here should leave him the wits he'll need for the movies, and may they serve him with fans the way his bravery pleased them in the ring.

As for Mayorga:

He lives to fight another day. Beating a plump-looking Vargas is going to give him just enough cache, undeserved or no, to serve at least once more as the sport's premier "opponent" -- a fighter who is not good enough to beat the elite but dangerous enough, credible enough, and entertaining enough to up the pay-per-view numbers. If that's the path he plans to ply, then the start-studded welterweight (147 lbs.) division is the one for him, and he's already called out Mayweather and Miguel Cotto. If, however, he wants to make a case for respectability (it's hard to remember he ever had it once, after twice defeating the significantly higher-regarded Vernon Forrest) he could try to make something of himself at junior middleweight, where he could fight Forrest again or avenge his loss to Cory Spinks. Maybe win a title or something. But something about the demeanor of the beer-swilling, incorporating-his-opponent's-dead-mother-into-his-trash-talk Mayorga suggests to me he'll skip the respectability business. Even after his apology to Vargas for all that talking he did about his wife and child.














Too soon, a young Vargas (left) fought Trinidad (right). Too late, the fight was stopped. It will be the first fight people think of when they remember Vargas, but it was the beginning of his end.

An All Over The Map Win And Fighting The Battle Of Who's Got Anything Left

A short holiday week means I'm going to say everything I have to now just in case I don't get a chance later; see below for my thoughts on Joan Guzman-Humberto Soto, the upcoming crane-your-neck-at-the-car-crash brawl between Fernando Vargas and Ricardo Mayorga, and more.

Still absent a permanent name for my random musings, I dub today's post Shoe-Shinings (see comment #4817 here for a definition):

• Wrap-up: The reviews of Joan Guzman for his win over Humberto Soto in a highly anticipated 130 pound showdown are all over the map. Put me in the "mostly displeased" category. Round 2 was awesome, and there were some other great exchanges at times, but my guess is that Guzman at some point just decided he was more likely to win if he switched from slugger mode to hit and run mode. There were rounds where Guzman did some beautiful hit and run work -- where he was aggressive, took risks, but still looked mainly to score points then get out of harm's way. There were other rounds, alas, where he embodied the negative connotations of stick and move -- where he barely touched Soto and then plain old ran away. If Guzman hoped to get a big-money fight with Manny Pacquiao by merely scoring a victory, he failed. Pacquiao's promoter, Bob Arum, said
  nobody would want to see Guzman fight Pacquaio after the way he barely fought Soto late in the bout. It's too bad, because Guzman has unearthly natural athletic ability and clearly can stand and trade with big punchers if he so chooses. He clearly can be an entertaining fighter, as he was to about half the people who watched him Saturday night and as he was to me for about half of Saturday night. Now, in addition to being avoided because he is dangerous, he stands the risk of being avoided because he's polarizing. I think if he keeps fighting and beating good opponents, he deserves a big money fight no matter how much he bores the viewers. But he would've gotten it a lot faster, and would have had me calling for it this morning, if he had ended that fight with an exclamation point instead of a series of semi-colons. Overall, the fight wasn't what anyone hoped, but it was a good, solid battle, and as for Soto, despite some mistakes, I wouldn't mind seeing him again at all. The question, though, of "who's next" for both Soto and Guzman is just as murky and complex as it was beforehand. And, while I'm at it, here's my view on the dispute over the wide scoring margin issued by the judges: I had it eight rounds to four for Guzman.
• Preview: This Friday's clash between faded star Fernando Vargas and faded super-villain
  Ricardo Mayorga is probably going to break the record for "most entertaining hype doled out before two severely diminished fighters find out who's the most shot." First there was the highlight reel brawl at a news conference, prompting some wags to quip that based on his victory in Vargas-Mayorga I, they like Vargas in the sequel. Then there is the mountain of trash talk these two have heaped up, with Mayorga, the master, probably getting the better of Vargas, who's fared pretty well, really. "He's got a face only a gorilla mother could love" is a decent line for Vargas, but it doesn't compare to Mayorga's numerous "fat pig" jabs. This fight is at 166 lbs., higher than either have ever gone, largely because Vargas has struggled making weight at 154 lbs., 160 lbs., even 162 lbs., the original contracted weight. Egads. I'm leaning toward a Mayorga win, since his savage knockout losses haven't seemed as frequent or debilitating as Vargas', but Vargas has shown more in his recent losses than Mayorga did versus Oscar De La Hoya. My call is Vargas by late round knockout, since I have my doubts either man will carry much power up to weights that high. My confidence is low. My allegiance is to neither man dying in the ring.
• More Wrap-up: I liked the looks of bantamweight (118 lbs.) prospect Abner Mares in his very competitive and action-packed bout against unknown David Damian Marchiano. Marchiano lost decisively on the scorecards, but he gave a very talented young fighter all he could handle and more. Good show by both men.... If former heavyweight champ Hasim Rahman can't handle feather-fisted Zuri Lawrence, who has suffered back to back nasty KO losses, with ease, then he's far more diminished than even I had guessed, and I didn't have much faith in Rahman to begin with.... Jesus! That Jesus Soto Karass welterweight (147 lbs.) fight against Juan Buenida featured so much heavy fire it was like an early John Woo movie. I only caught a few rounds because I didn't know it was even on, but Soto Karass landed the CompuBox record for most punches landed, I learned, and I wasn't surprised. I now see why this Karass has a little bit of a following.
• Random: Why in the world anyone would want to see Pacquiao, a 130-pounder who is stretching the limits of how high he can move up in weight as it is now, go up to 147 lbs. to fight Oscar De La Hoya is beyond me, but Arum's apparently really trying to make it happen... Allan Green is way, way, way, way too big a step up for super middleweight (168 lbs.) prospect Andre Ward, if that really is the discussion. Really, I want Ward to step up his competition, but let's not get ridiculous. The talk of fighting Edison Miranda made more sense. On the other hand, I really like the idea of welterweight prospect Victor Ortiz taking on junior welterweight (140 lbs.) titlist Ricardo Torres. One guy, Torres, is more of a veteran and can punch really, really hard, and Ortiz, the other guy, is younger and a more all around fighter. I think it'd be a fun one to see and a good test for both... What I don't care to see is a rematch between Joel Casamayor and Jose Armando Santa Cruz. No matter what the blind judges saw in their first meeting, I know and anyone else who can see knows Santa Cruz won an incredibly boring affair, not one I'd care to like to revisit and that I doubt anyone would pay to watch. Here's hoping some kind of justice can come Santa Cruz' way somehow... I already love HBO's Mayweather/Hatton 24/7 documentary series. The more I see of Ricky Hatton's personality, the more I like him. The more I see of Floyd Mayweather's personality, the less I like him. If Mayweather stinks out the joint in a boring decision victory again in their Dec. 8 fight, I'm officially no longer a fan.

A Decision Worse Than Making The Matrix Sequels, A Pair Of Uninformative Blowouts And A Dicey Career Move Off An Impressive Victory

I wrote this Sunday, but I thought we all might let the Miguel Cotto-Shane Mosley thriller soak in for a day and a half or so before I turned my attention to other things. Particularly, there was some talk before Saturday night that the Cotto-Mosley fight card was the best of the year, top to bottom, so I want to give my take on the other match-ups, then visit the other major fight of the night.

So here, in my ongoing roving-named series of quick thoughts, find my Turbo Punches:

• The Joel Casamayor win over Jose Armando Santa Cruz featured by far the worst decision by three judges I've ever seen with my own eyes in real time. I scored it 119-107 for Santa Cruz, and most everyone who scored it on press row had it about the same. That's 11 rounds to 1 against Casamayor, folks, with Casamayor losing an extra point for the 1st round knockdown. Were I feeling generous toward Casamayor -- and given what a jackass he is, I wasn't -- I could have, at most, give him another couple rounds. How two judges saw it as even a narrow victory astounds me, and how one judge saw it as only a narrow win for Santa Cruz is only slightly less astounding. Casamayor did nothing. Nothing. Since when do you get points for running away from someone? His punches, when he bothered to throw them, lacked steam. He was rusty from a 13-month layoff, and, maybe, just plain old at 36. The only thing Casamayor did of note was avoid getting clobbered when he accidentally got caught between the ropes at one point and dodged Santa Cruz's punches Matrix-style by bending halfway over. Plus, Santa Cruz was the aggressor throughout and landed plenty of hard shots against a Casamayor who usually is a defensive maestro. It's shameful that Santa Cruz, a nice, strange little fighter who is always entertaining despite being limited, has a loss on his record because of this decision. This decision is far worse, for me, than the Almazbek "Kid Diamond" Raiymkulov-Miguel Huerta decision this year, because, as Bad Left Hook correctly noted, at least Kid Diamond fought in that one, even though I and everyone else in the world thought he lost. I didn't see the Steve Forbes/Demetrius Hopkins fight this year that everyone thought was a solid Forbes victory that Hopkins somehow won on the scorecards. Hopkins and Casamayor are both Golden Boy-promoted fighters who got gift decisions on Golden Boy-promoted cards (as did, I hear tell, Golden Boy-promoted Daniel Ponce De Leon against Gerry Penalosa this year). I refuse to make allegations where I don't have evidence, and it'd be about the stupidest thing in the world for Golden Boy to be involved in any kind of judicial tampering, but if I were Golden Boy brass, I'd be taking a good hard look at myself about how it is that two of my pay-per-view cards featured three of the consensus three worst decision victories of the year. (Bad Left Hook's got an interesting theory on how the Casamayor decision debacle happened. I recommend checking it out, even though I don't endorse it myself.)
• Speaking of Casamayor: There was a lot of good, frisky debate before the fight, during the broadcast and afterwards in some of boxing's chattering class about whether Casamayor deserves to be called the "true champion" of the lightweight (135 lbs.) division. He holds the Ring Magazine belt, which you earn by beating the man who beat the man who beat the man etc., Ring's commendable attempt to slice through the multi-belt/sanctioning organization morass. I have some thoughts on this, but not the time to give them this second, so I'll be delving into this later in the week.
  
• Former welterweight (147 lbs.) champ Antonio Margarito did, truly, look sensational blowing out Golden Johnson in one round. Those were, truly, some of the best left uppercuts you'll see a right-hander land, and one of the most eye-popping power-punching combinations you're likely to witness. Margarito did, truly, start fast, learning his lesson from the Paul Williams defeat earlier this year where he dug himself about a six round hole on the scorecards just by getting outworked. But let's put this in context. We're talking about Golden Johnson here. Sure, he was a promising lightweight up until about 1998. But he got this fight by upsetting Oscar Diaz last year, who, so far as I can tell, was a prospect whose best win was over freaking Jesse Feliciano in 2005. Jesse Feliciano? Johnson before that had gotten his ass handed to him in three rounds by Vivian Harris in 2001, and has a few other not-so-impressive losses on his record to journeymen like Cosme Rivera, albeit some tough journeymen. One of boxing's best cliches is that "styles make fights." I really think Margarito would cream the shorter and vulnerable Cotto, I do, and Margarito is a good, good fighter. But the fleet-footed Mosley or Floyd Mayweather, Jr. would very likely pick Margarito apart, even with Margarito's height advantage. Nothing I saw in this win over Johnson changed my mind in any way about Margarito, other than to think that maybe if he got a rematch with Williams he wouldn't fight so poorly to start.
• Likewise, Victor Ortiz' first round blowout of Carlos Maussa proved very little, mainly because Maussa looked so terrible. I didn't think that knockout punch was all that convincing, but Maussa responded to it very poorly. He's clearly a spent bullet, having been in some tough fights over the years, including an extended beatdown, albeit one in which Maussa was competitive, at the hands of Ricky Hatton in 2005. Maussa was, in theory, a good step-up fight for a hot young prospect on the verge of becoming a contender in the vicinity of the junior welterweight (140 lbs.)/welterweight divisions. It didn't work out being that way in reality, through no fault of Ortiz' own.
  
• Switching gears to action across the ocean... David Haye's knockout of Jean-Marc Mormeck in France Saturday did prove quite a lot. This is a win over the legitimate champion of the division that proves Haye isn't just a boxing specimen; he's a real fighter. He showed some heart along the way by battling back from a 4th round knockdown and some other hairy moments. Now, he says, he's on his way to heavyweight. But if he's getting wobbled and/or dropped by the likes of Mormeck, and, before him, some dude named Giacobbe Fragomeni, and other naturally smaller men at the cruiserweight limit of 200 lbs., what's Haye gonna do when he gets hit by someone who's tipping the scales at around 260? He said before that he'd only gotten knocked out by Carl Thompson because he struggled so mightily with his weight that his stamina suffered. But before this fight with Mormeck, Haye claimed he'd worked the weight off more studiously, and therefore wouldn't have any stamina problems. What's his excuse for getting decked by Mormeck, then? I'd like to request that Haye stay at cruiserweight. There are some nice money fights for him there, such as a matchup with fellow countryman Enzo Maccarinelli. If he proves during his reign that he truly can take a punch from a 200-pounder, maybe I won't be so skeptical. I think Haye has a heavyweight punch and the kind of speed that could make him an interesting heavyweight contender, but I think those two factors could make him the cruiserweight king for a long time to come, if he devotes himself to his craft.

May the judges of the Casayamor-Santa Cruz fight be forever confined to this restaurant. "Fine eats" or no, it'd get old after a while. Plus, there's the humiliation factor.

Do Believe The Hype

A fight, with power. Mosley, left, Cotto, on the right and with the right.

Another night in November, another fight that glorified boxing.

MIGUEL COTTO-SHANE MOSLEY

Yessir, that sure lived up to the hype.

Rarely will you see that many punches landed in fight that were clear knockout punches without anyone going down. It was exchange after exchange as Shane Mosley and Miguel Cotto did what all great, exciting fighters do: refuse to let a blow go unanswered. And they weren't pitty-pat punches, either -- both men were putting everything they had into almost everything they threw. Strategically, it was a marvel as well. How's this bit of strategy for entertainment: Cotto, the ultimate pressure fighter, spent the second half of the bout going backwards, circling and counter-punching. You know, like Mosley was supposed to do. And you know what? Cotto did it pretty well.

In a fight I scored a draw, Cotto won a close unanimous decision in the eyes of the judges. And in a year filled with legitimate fight of the year candidates, I think this warrants consideration, but ultimately it's behind in my race. Still, with all the hard, clean punching, the back-and-forth and the surprising tactical flip-flop, it was definitely worth the $50 I paid for it.

Consider, besides the bizarre sight of Cotto dancing away from Mosley's shots, the following points of intrigue. 1. Cotto was the far superior jabber. Now, Mosley's never been a true believer in the jab, but you have to admit, despite the good jab Cotto demonstrated against Zab Judah, you wouldn't have predicted that Cotto was going to outjab Mosley. 2. Mosley more or less neutralized Cotto's body attack with his movement and by concentrating on defending his torso. In fact, I'd argue that Mosley was the better body puncher Saturday night. Come on. No way you foresaw that, right? Even though Mosley always has been a good body puncher. 3. Mosley nailed Cotto with every punch he's vulnerable to and then some, including the uppercut (good idea, considering Cotto always comes forward with his head down) straight punches down the middle (which he seems to have trouble defending against for some reason) plus right hooks and lefts to the body (Cotto's hittable, but I can't recall him getting pasted much with those kind of punches before). And Cotto never went down. Never even looked like he would. Even though I questioned Mosley's power at welterweight, he really caught Cotto with some amazing stuff that made me go, "How's Cotto still standing up?"

I think we need to reexamine one very serious knock on Cotto. And despite all the evidence available to me before last night, it's a stereotype I've embraced. That is, Cotto allegedly just does one thing -- pressure, punch to the body, systematically break down his opponent -- but he does it so well it's hard to stop. There's some truth to that. But think back. How cleverly does he employ the constant switching from conventional to southpaw stance? And hasn't he been doing it for a while? Mosley said it after the fight, but I'm going to second it: Cotto's not just a good brawler, he's a good boxer as well. Cotto's got decent speed, or he never would have hit the version of Mosley that was up on his toes in the middle rounds. And he showed he can adjust mid-fight and try new things -- the aforementioned back-pedaling/counter-punching -- so he's got some good ring smarts, too. This is something like the revelation that was Manny Pacquaio's emergence as a great combination brawler/boxer around the time of the second Erik Morales fight; there may have been signs that the fiery young gun could win a chess match, but now there's proof of it.

Cotto's a superstar now. In beating Mosley, he has finally defeated a truly great fighter. I feel like I've not paid much attention to how well Mosley performed here. But I wouldn't be singing Cotto's praises so much if he'd defeated a once-good, now-old fighter. Mosley looked fantastic. It was so close they even landed the exact same number of punches. It was ridiculously even. And Cotto looks better for having come out ahead of a Mosley who was at the top of his game.

Now, if only Cotto could somehow work on that chin of his, because even after the firestorm of Mosley punches Cotto walked through, I think there are bigger-punching welterweights who could seriously rearrange Cotto's world.

Next for the winner: It really ought to be the winner of the Dec. 8 fight between Floyd Mayweather, Jr. and Ricky Hatton. I don't think either Hatton or Mayweather are the kind of welterweights who could rearrange Cotto's world with their punching power. But both pose a threat to him in a different way. And he poses a threat to them. Mayweather, as the supreme thinking man's boxer in the sport today, might very well easily dismantle Cotto; he's like Mosley 2.0. But then, Cotto, as an expert at cutting off the ring, could give Mayweather a run for his money, and with his newly-indisputable boxing skills, might chase down Mayweather, who probably doesn't hit as hard at welterweight as does Mosley. Anyway, I'd like to find out. It wouldn't be a bad consolation prize to see Hatton and Cotto square off. They're very similar, and as an admirer of body punching, I'd have to make sure I wasn't eating any Frosted Flakes during the fight, because I might spit them all over my living room as I felt sympathy pains and winced at some of the hard shots to the ribs those two would be throwing. If Hatton or Mayweather fall through, I sure wouldn't mind seeing Cotto getting a big payday against Oscar De La Hoya. And even though I think Cotto would very likely meet his maker in a fight with Antonio Margarito, it'd be an entertaining affair if it happened. Since Margarito lost to Paul Williams, though, I think he needs to win another fight or two before he gets a money machine like Cotto, since Mayweather, Hatton and maybe even De La Hoya are more deserving. Cotto seems to think the same. No matter which of those four Cotto faces next, it'll be a big, big fight.

Next for the loser: Mosley sounded very much like a man about to retire after the loss to Cotto. I can't blame him. Who needs all this kind of stuff at 36? And Mosley's a warrior who, despite his excellent boxing skills, has stood and traded fearlessly throughout his entire career. Eventually, the miles will catch up to him. The class he showed after the fight in acknowledging Cotto's excellence, plus Mosley's sterling exhibition of bravery and skill during it, mitigated my resentment of his Shane's steroid shenanigans. I have no problem with him retiring after Saturday night. I don't think he's going out a loser -- as I said, I think it was a draw. Still, if he's worried about "getting back in line" at his age, as he said, I can think of a pretty direct path. How about fighting Margarito? Or the loser of Mayweather-Hatton? The winner of either fight would be able to make an excellent case that he deserves a shot at whatever names emerge on the top of the welterweight heap by the middle of next year.

Wow, I Totally Don't Think "The Contender" Sucks Anymore

Hallelujah, that Jaidon Codrington-Sakio Bika "Contender" finale was special. I'm not kidding; it wasn't just good in a condescending "good for a reality show fight" kind of way, it was great in its own right. It was certainly one of the best fights of the year so far, keeping in mind I haven't seen in full a couple of the other small-c contenders (two of Michael Katsidis' brawls), but it's at least behind the two Israel Vasquez-Rafael Marquez spectacles. And it wasn't quite "one of the best fights ever" as ESPN's Brian Kenny was trying to hype it, but I'd take the 1st round as one of the best rounds, if not the best round, of the year. Codrington goes down; Bika goes down; Bika stumbles around hurt until near the end of the round, then he hurts Codrington again. The pattern repeated throughout, with each combatant trading turns nearly hitting the deck until finally Bika outlasted Codrington and scored the TKO in the 8th. Any time I'm jumping out of my seat and shouting expletives, that's a really, really good fight.

Bika was just too experienced, strong and rock-jawed. Codrington got tired, some from Bika's punches and some from only having to go three rounds in the whole Contender tournament, while Bika had to go 13 really hard ones in his road to the finale. Codrington, in fact, was stumbling from exhaustion when he got caught with the punches that finished him, and the angle of his stumble directly contributed to the knockout. But Codrington's just 23. He's got powder kegs for fists, lightning speed and intimidating offensive technique. If he works on his conditioning and defense, he'll be a world champion one day. I'm a true believer now. As for Bika? Hell, he's $750,000 richer, and he'll make a pretty penny more drawing fans in the future as a direct result of having won "The Contender" finale. He can probably challenge again for a world title credibly, but whereas Codrington can and likely will exceed the institutional heights of "runner-up on 'The Contender,'" I bet this is the climax of Bika's career. Not that it's a bad thing. If I was a boxer, I'd gladly take "two-time championship contender and one-time winner of a popular reality show that gives me more exposure than winning a world title would've."

Put Down The Hater Tots

Two entertaining, meaningful fights this past weekend in one night to kick off a November chock full of them...

JOE CALZAGHE-MIKKEL KESSLER

Enough is enough. Anyone who doubts Joe Calzaghe after his super middleweight (168 lbs.) unification win Saturday over Mikkel Kessler is drinking Haterade while soaking in Hateration Bath Salts and reading Hater Monthly magazine. And he did it in a barn burner, too.

I gave four or five rounds to Kessler, more than any of the judges, based on his harder punches in many of the rounds. But Calzaghe clearly won a string of the middle rounds that put him over the top. It surely was discouraging to Kessler when Calzaghe hurt him with a body shot, and it surely distressed him when Calzaghe took all of his best shots with ease, but I think Kessler became most discouraged in the round after Calzaghe's pop/trainer told him to "shine" -- meaning, I think, to "shoe shine." Those annoying flurries cemented that Calzaghe wasn't going away.

greatness. On that point I agreed with Kessler fought well; this loss wasn't about his flaws, so much as it was about Calzaghe'sHBO's commentators. And HBO's commentators made the same point I did about how impossible it is to prepare for Calzaghe. There's no one like him, with those awkward-looking punches from strange angles. But to me, the biggest revelation was that Calzaghe can take a serious, serious punch. Kessler hit him with some amazing uppercuts that would've put an elephant in a coma, but Calzaghe acted like he didn't even notice them. He even took a hailstorm of blows from Kessler in the 12th round that looked utterly intolerable. By the way, that Kessler came out swinging for the fences in the 12th round, knowing he needed a knockout to win, showed his mettle. As obvious as it is when fighters in a hole with the judges need to try for the knockout, it just doesn't happen as often as it should. Champions, though, real fighters, do it more often than not.

This was two excellent fighters fighting excellently. I think it lived up to the expectations, if it didn't surpass them, but lacked some of the drama of this year's other major unification fight, the Kelly Pavlik-Jermain Taylor showdown at middleweight (160 lbs). But it made up for it with some fascinating stuff strategy-wise, and the determination both men showed to win.

Next for the winner: If Calzaghe defeated Kessler this soundly, there is only one man left who is even within shouting distance of being able to beat him, and that man is light heavyweight (175 lbs.) king Bernard Hopkins. No one solves a puzzle as meticulously as Hopkins, and Calzaghe's certainly a puzzle. There's a chance this fight could get derailed on logistics, such as whether it's in America or Great Britain. I personally say it's time for Calzaghe to fight outside Wales, but both men clearly want to fight each other, so let's make it happen.
Next for the loser: Again, as the HBO commentators said, Kessler could win back all the belts he lost if Calzaghe moves up to light heavyweight. I'd like to see him in a fight with Lucian Bute, especially. I think this is the kind of loss that makes a fighter better, not worse -- Kessler had never experienced serious adversity in his career. He should be back, and he should be good and improved when he comes back.

JUAN MANUEL MARQUEZ-ROCKY JUAREZ

I don't think the cut opened up on Rocky Juarez' eyelid in the first round of his junior lightweight (130 lbs.) fight Saturday against Juan Manuel Marquez had any impact on the eventual outcome. I think, head butt or no, Marquez would have won; the only difference might have been how simply the win came. I gave every single round to Marquez, but if I was the referee, it wouldn't have lasted 12 of them. That cut was icky, and dangerous. At any moment, I expected Juarez' eyelid to fly off into the middle rows.

Say what you will about Juarez, but he's a good fighter who seriously tested Marco Antonio Barrera, one of Marquez' peers among the great Mexican fighters of the last decade or so. Barrera was younger then in 2005 than Marquez is now, and Marquez routed Juarez. I totally buy Marquez' claim that he's in his prime, even though he's 34, because the old version who emphasized defense preserved things for the new version of Marquez, the one who emphasizes offense while retaining his defensive skill. Certainly he's in his prime from the standpoint of his entertainment value.

Next for the winner: Boxing fans should take up a collection to hire anyone who might ever come into contact with Marquez or Manny Pacquiao and pay them to repeatedly say each other's names, like in the scene from "Being John Malkovich" where everyone only says the word "Malkovich." "Pacquaio Pacquiao? Pacquiao," the waiter should say to Marquez. "Marquez Marquez Marquez! Marquez, Marquez," the drug store clerk should say to Pacquaio. We must, must, must have a rematch of the amazing 2004 draw between the two of them. I'm hard-pressed to think of a more important fight.
Next for the loser: I wish I knew what to make of Juarez. He's clearly got talent. Maybe he needs to stay away from hall of fame-bound Mexicans for a while. Maybe he needs to go back to 126 lbs., which is a more natural weight for him, and take on Robert Guerrero, the fighter he was originally scheduled to take on before the Marquez bout opened up for him. I'm not going to write Juarez just yet, though, since he's only lost to all-time greats in Marquez and Barrera, plus an A-level fighter in Humberto Soto.

Cynicism Rewarded

Yup, nothing I saw on Shobox tonight convinced me otherwise that any of the dudes in this heavyweight title eliminator tournament could knock off Vladimir Klitschko.

I was not in agreement with the Showtime commentators who thought after the fight ended it was impossible for Calvin Brock to pull out a decision over eventual victor Eddie Chambers. In fact, I had it a draw, with Brock winning rounds one through four, then the 10th and 11th. Maybe that's why it took so long for the scores to be tabulated. How much would it have sucked to hold a four-boxer single-elimination tournament and have one of the fights come up even? I don't want to allege foul play here, I'm just sayin'. That all three judges had their pick for winner just one round ahead is not surprising.

I did like some things about Eddie Chambers, whom I had not seen before. Those are some fast hands he's got. He also moved around in little baby steps like all those awesome fights from Joe Louis' era. The way he held his hands and cocked his head was pure new school, though. Anyway, he's evidently got a little pop in his mits, too, because Brock looked all kinds of mushy in the face parts. One main problem: He's way too small to beat Klitschko. I'd give him a good chance against literally any other heavyweight on the scene that I've seen, a category of fighter that does not include his next opponent, Alexander Povetkin, who he'll meet for the final elimination. Chambers looks like he could dull most heavyweights' power with that upper body fall-back move, and his speed would give a lot of them serious trouble. I don't understand why he didn't throw more punches, considering Brock gave him plenty of opportunities, but then, Chambers is young and maybe didn't realize the gravity of the situation. Against Klitschko, that inactivity and tendency to stand in front of his man without doing anything for minutes at a time would only lead to Chambers getting jabbed one billion and three times per round, and Klitschko wouldn't care if he hit glove, because so long as Klitschko jabs Chambers and keeping him away, he wins on being busy alone.

Brock didn't look like the same person who was in a fun brawl with Jameel McCline a few years ago, nor the same person who scored 2006's knockout of the year over Zuri Lawrence, or even the same person who gave Klitschko a moderate run for his money late last year. I wonder if that crushing knockout loss he suffered at the hands of Klitschko took a lot out of him. Chambers' punches seemed to affect Brock a good deal, even the jabs. Brock looked slow in comparison not only to Chambers but to previous incarnations of himself, although maybe that had something to do with Brock coming in at a career high weight. He looked sluggish enough that I was tempted to think he just didn't want to fight Klitschko again -- who could blame him? -- if not for the fact that Brock came out hard in the 10th and 11th. Then just as mysteriously he ran away from Chambers all of the 12th, as if he didn't need the round or didn't want it. Maybe he was distracted and/or annoyed, as I was, by his father trying to dictate directions between rounds when Pernell Whitaker is his trainer these days, not dear old dad, his ex-trainer. Anyway, I fear Brock's headed for opponent-land if he is worse for the wear from the Klitschko fight, because Brock was only ever a good all-around fighter who had a low margin of error if he wanted to become champ. I'd miss the "Boxing Banker" nickname if Brock left the game, but hey, he is a banker if he wants to be with that college degree, and his wife is working to become a lawyer. Better that he enjoys a life of high-falutin' banker-lawyer love than muddle through a boxing career as a punching bag.

Clearly, I am this guy.

Score For Charismatic, Fun Boxers On The Verge Of Stardom Who Double As College Students

JUAN DIAZ-JULIO DIAZ

It wasn't the ultra-competitive fight I expected, but then it wasn't exactly unenjoyable, either. Juan Diaz' dominant performance Saturday night, which forced Julio Diaz' corner to throw in the towel in the ninth round, is mainly the reason it fell short in the competition department, and Juan also was the reason behind its enjoyability. This Juan Diaz -- he's really something, isn't he? I could watch him all day. His style might rightly be called "tornado-like," but he took it to near-literal levels when, as my friend Dave noted, he punched a complete circle around Julio at one point. Juan hit him a bunch, stepped to his left, then repeated until he'd come all the way around Julio. Juan's close proximity dulled Julio's power, because he just couldn't get the extension on his punches the way he needed. Juan's style -- reminiscent of this scene from Curb Your Enthusiasm -- is going to keep him from getting KO'd except for by all but the best power-punchers, guys who can knock a man out from an extremely short distance. We saw Kelly Pavlik do this to Edison Miranda, too. If a fighter can walk through the firestorm of a big puncher, it may be the best way, short of some fancy footwork, to defuse a bomb-thrower.

Julio may have fought the wrong fight by staying on the inside with Juan, but then, as Larry Merchant noted, he may not have had any choice. When Julio kept his distance a little, he did all right; that tactic put the fight in that rare category of "one-sided fight that's kind of competive." Only problem is, Juan would clobber Julio with eight punches in a row if Julio dared to hit him with three. MaxBoxing.com's Doug Fischer said Julio had the look of an overtrained or spent fighter. My eye's not good enough to tell. But Juan's punch volume, his head movement on the way in, his smart jab and his other attributes probably did as much to overwhelm Julio as anything else.

All in all, Juan Diaz impressed me more than Julio disappointed. Sure, Juan's a little chubby-looking. Sure, he doesn't hit all that hard. But what's it matter that he looks chubby if he can throw punches from morning to night? What's it matter if he doesn't hit that hard, if everyone he fights these days says, "I'm done, I quit. I don't want to fight this guy anymore tonight. It's too much of a pain in the ass?" Plus, I can't get enough of the college student storyline. Plus, he's likable as all get-out. After he won, he said, "I feel like King Kong!" How charming is that (even though it accidentally implies impending doom)? Young Diaz can be a breakout star under the right conditions. Make 'em happen, Don King.

Next for the winner: The three consensus options for Juan -- only 24 years old -- are fellow lightweight (135 lbs.) belt-holder David Diaz; lightweight Ring Magazine champ Joel Casamayor; and 130-pound sensation Manny Pacquiao. Pacquiao would mean the most money, so naturally that's who Juan was calling out Saturday after his win. But if I'm Pacquiao, I stay far away from Juan. Pacquiao's boxing skills have improved dramatically, but I don't think he has the slickness needed to outbox Juan, nor do I think he will carry enough of his power with the extra five pounds of weight he'd need to knock him clean out. Plus, I want Pacquiao to fight Juan Manuel Marquez. Casamayor, one of the most underrated fighters of our time, just might have the slickness necessary to outbox Juan, and we could settle all this business about whether Casamayor, as the so-called "linear" champ, or Juan, as the champ holding the most belts, is the best. I like this fight most, but Casamayor sounds like a bitch to negotiate with, so David Diaz is a good backup fight, assuming he doesn't end up in the ring with Pacquiao. Not much on the map, but a fight that would virtually guarantee non-stop excitement, is Juan vs. fellow all-action fighter Michael Katsidis. I'd take that one, too. Happily.
Next for the loser: Julio's already come back from three demoralizing losses, so I don't see why he can't come back from this one. I think he's going to have to take the route of all beaten champs -- get back in line, beat some contenders, look good doing it and before long he's up for another belt. Julio's likable, too, so I wish him the best.

















"The Baby Bull" may not be that intimidating a nickname for Juan Diaz, as the image of the child above makes clear. Nor does a reasonable description of Juan as "pudgy-looking college student" sound all that scary. But scatter, yon boxers. Juan will make your Saturday evening seriously unpleasant.

Two Winners, Two Worries

On Saturday night, Manny Pacquiao picked up another big win against one of the best in boxing history, and Sam Peter returned for his own victory that, due to the peculiarities of title belt politics, means he made his first defense of an "interim" championship. Were the circumstances different, this might be cause for celebration for what were, going in, one of boxing's biggest superstars in Pacquiao and a potential savior of the desert-like heavyweight division in Peter. But circumstances matter.

What their opponents do next is moot. Marco Antonio Barrera is retiring following his second loss to Pacquiao, and Jameel McCline -- well, I don't really care what McCline does. Having watched the fight on replay, it was maddening to watch him backpedal in the fourth round after dropping Peter twice in the third, then refuse to throw the uppercut considering that Peter was practically begging for it by leaning down.

What Pacquiao did Saturday may very well have been about what he does next. All agree that Pacquiao fought cautiously, nothing like the whirlwind of fists we've come to love. Likewise, all agree he looked gaunt at the weigh-in the day before. One of his promoters, Bob Arum, is talking about Pacquiao fighting at lightweight (135 lbs.), up from the junior lightweight division (130) that he's dominated for the last couple years. His trainer, Freddie Roach, said: "We're trying to make him a better overall fighter, with a longer, better career." That goes hand in hand with Roach's confession that he knows Pacquiao, at lightweight, won't have the same power edge. Usually, I'd be in favor of a fighter having a longer, better career, but there are thought undercurrents here that have my furrowing my brow. I must start by saying the only fight I want to see Pacquiao in next is a rematch with Juan Manuel Marquez who fought Pacquiao to a dramatic draw in 2004. That's assuming Marquez gets through his Nov. 3 meeting with Rocky Juarez, it almost goes without saying. Not only do Pacquiao and Marquez have unfinished business, but they're two of the sport's five best fighters, pound for pound. Marquez only recently moved up to junior lightweight, so it could be a stretch to move up again soon at all if ever, no matter what Arum is saying about a possible Pacquiao-Marquez rematch in that division. No, I don't think this is about whether Pacquiao can make 130 anymore. I think it's about whether Pacquiao wants to make 130 anymore. Middleweight Jermain Taylor recently showed that his main problem making 160 lbs. was how hard he wanted to train making it, since he did it easily after concentrating full-time on doing so for one of the first times in his career. I think Pacquiao is in a similar situation; his distractions outside the ring prior to this weekend are well-documented. Worse still than the likelihood that a Marquez rematch may not happen anytime soon is the possibility that we've now seen the last of the Pacquiao who tries to blast out everyone he fights, replaced by a heavier, less powerful, more tactical thinker. Barrera pulled off the whole brawler-turned-boxer thing, but I doubt it will suit Pacquiao as well. Explosiveness is what made Pacquiao special. If he abandons it, 2007 won't just be the year we witnessed the ending for great warriors like Barrera, Diego Corrales, Jose Luis Castillo, Eric Morales and Fernando Vargas. We can add Pacquiao to the list, if only figuratively.

Peter, also from the seek and destroy school of fisticuffs, never stopped trying to do just that to McCline, even after landing on his back three times early in the fight. The worry about Peter is of a different variety -- that he was on his back to begin with. On one level, that he got back up showed considerable fortitude. Peter is still green, by heavyweight standards. Maybe he will learn lessons from the McCline knockdowns. But a granite chin is one of the traits, with his nasty knockout power, that made Peter such a formidable heavyweight, viewed as no worse than the second best behind Vitali Klitschko, whom Peter barely lost to in 2005. Anyone can "get caught," but regardless of Peter's claims that his knockdowns were mere slips, he was badly hurt in the third, and not by some lucky punch. Peter never figured out that the uppercut was his huckleberry, and never adjusted as such. A less reticent fighter than McCline, or a better conditioned one, would have made Peter pay. Fortunately for us, Peter has shown the ability to learn, as he showed in his rematch against James Toney last year. Nor should a Peter loss as a result of some of these mistakes be the end of him as an upper-tier heavyweight; he's still young, and could rebuild. Just one question: Can anyone still say, after Saturday night, that Peter has a granite chin, badly hurt as he was by a three-time also-ran? I, for one, am worried.
















This is Peter Cushing. His name is Peter, like Sam, and he was gaunt, like Manny was on Friday. How I tied this all together is nothing short of a miracle, but maybe a bit of a stretch.

Three Career Endings: 1. Reflected Upon, 2. Wished For, 3. Accursed

A gentleman out of the ring except when it came to hated enemy Erik Morales, Barrera was a snarling, sneering and ruthless competitor between the ropes -- punching Juan Manuel Marquez when he was down, hitting Manny Pacquiao on the break Saturday, and mauling Naseem Hamed, pictured at right, by shoving his face into a ring post and more. Oh, and he was really, really good.


Saturday brought the end of one historic career, the next step in the car-crash comeback of another and the likely woeful conclusion to a third.

1. Adios, Marco Antonio Barrera. Anyone who's followed boxing for the last decade or so knows that, with Barrera having retired after Saturday's defeat at the hands of Manny Pacquiao -- kryptonite to Mexican fighters and Barrera in particular -- the sport is losing one of its all-time greats, and one of the most entertaining warriors of any era. I briefly visited his list of accomplishments before, but it's worth revisiting more fully here, because it's truly worthy of awe when they're all stacked up. Titles at junior featherweight (122 lbs.), featherweight (126) and junior lightweight (130). Ring Magazine fights of the year and rounds of the year in 2000 and 2004. Fight of the year candidates in 1996, 2006 and 2007, if not more years. Persistent inhabitant of unofficial top 10 "pound for pound" lists of best fighters since around the turn of the century, and before that, on and off starting in the mid-90s. One half of one of boxing's greatest trilogies, where he won two of three versus Erik Morales. Sixty-three wins, including victories against Naseem Hamed -- in one of his greatest performances, a dismantling of the popular Hamed's legend -- Morales, Kennedy McKinney, Johnny Tapia, Paulie Ayala, Daniel Jiminez, Luis Freitas, Kevin Kelley and Rocky Juarez. Definitive losses against only Pacquiao and Junior Jones, and borderline losses that could have gone Barerra's way against Jones in their second meeting, Morales and Juan Manuel Marquez. Ring Magazine comeback of the year in 2004, one of several dramatic career rebirths. One of the top five -- or at worst, top 10 -- Mexican fighters ever, quite a big deal in a country with as strong a boxing tradition as any other on the planet. A first ballot hall-of-famer. I could say a great deal more about Barrera in an attempt to give him his due praise, but what he did in the ring kinda glorifies itself, doesn't it?
2. Andrew Golota, please go away. "The Foul Pole" -- infamous for his in-ring meltdowns such as his two straight disqualifications against Riddick Bowe, which he earned by punching Bowe in the nuts endlessly -- is making yet another comeback bid in the wasteland that is the heavyweight division, with his latest and most noteworthy win coming this weekend over shell-of-Mike Tyson conqueror Kevin McBride. I was about to say the only fight I want to see Golota in is one where he's a sacrificial lamb and KO victim for some up-and-comer, but forgot my rule about wishing suffering on the mentally ill. I shouldn't villianize him. I just plain want him to go away.
3. My condolences, Jose Antonio Rivera. It saddens me that Rivera probably is never going to get his one big chance, which looks farther away than ever after his knockout loss to Daniel Santos on Saturday. Rivera is about as lovable a person you'll find in a sport where the goal is to bludgeon your opponent into unconsciousness. He's nice and humble and has said time and again that all he wants before he retires is a major money fight to make it easier to provide for his family. He's a court security officer by day who has enough skill, heart and power to have spent much of his nighttime career just on the periphery of that fight, save for some awful luck. In 2004, he missed the money train when then-welterweight (147 lbs.) flavor of the month Ricardo Mayorga bailed out of a scheduled meeting. In 2005 he lost a title shot to Luis Collazo, weight-drained in part because he'd not been able to train full-time due to his day job. Beloved in his hometown of Worcester, Mass., he was given time off in 2006 to train for a junior middleweight (154 lbs.) title fight against Alejandro Garcia, which he won entertainingly but which nobody saw because it happened the same night that Oscar De La Hoya beat up Mayorga. Then, earlier this year, because of some complicated circumstances with the belt-sanctioning organization, he was forced into a mandatory defense and disastrous style matchup against the far slicker, faster Travis Simms. Now the road back to a title shot and subsequent millions is almost infinitely long for a 34-year-old with two straight KO losses, and ESPN writes that his career is probably over. He's getting into the boxing promotion business back in Massachusetts, and I wish him luck for once there -- although reports are that he's off to a rocky start, having run into some trouble with the state's boxing bureaucracy, poetically if cruelly.

Once I Was Blind, Now I Can See

There'll be ample boxing to talk about this week -- Marco Antonio Barrera ending his remarkable career, another must-see fight or two coming up Saturday, how the hell Jameel McCline gave Samuel Peter so much trouble when it took harder-hitting Vladimir Klitschko 12 rounds to hit "The Nigerian Nightmare" with a punch that had him reeling -- but there's something much more unimportant I want to address. I'm skipping over the more meaningful topics in part because I won't see the Barrera-Manny Pacquiao fight until next weekend, assuming they'll replay the $50 main event for free on HBO, and because I didn't catch but a few rounds of Peter-McCline despite my best intentions. The other reason is because I'm feeling like less of an idiot these days about the topic at hand, and I want to express my relief about it: Predictions.

Unless you're Las Vegas or a professional gambler, boxing predictions are more art than science. Ultimately, they matter very little. At most, one's prediction accuracy says a tiny amount about what one knows about the sport. But they're part of the fun of being a fight fan, at least for me.

And when I started up this blog, my prediction accuracy started in the gutter, then rolled around in it for a while. I went 1 for 5 in July, my first month online. That's Alex Rodriguez-in-October-level stuff. My confidence in my understanding of boxing was in shambles. Before I started the blog, when I made predictions in my head, my accuracy was damn good. But had I, like the aforementioned Yankee who kills it in the regular season but vaporizes in the playoffs, choked when it really mattered?

As it turns out, nowadays I'm more like a Yankee more famous for his fall performances, Mr. October himself, Reggie Jackson. Since August 1, I've gone 6 for 6. Sometimes, I haven't been right about the exact nature of the victory. Take this weekend, when Peter had to gut out a decision against a three-time also-ran in the form of McCline, rather than knocking him out in the middle rounds as I haughtily scoffed that he would. Other times I've been pretty proud that my going against conventional wisdom ended up being such a dashing move. That would be like this weekend again, when, as I predicted, Barrera reportedly made a better showing than in his 2003 battering from the fists of Pacquiao, even though age and career arc both looked to solidly favor a Pac-Man blowout of the Baby-Faced Assassin. But ultimately, I'd rather be wrong about the reason my pick won, as I have sometimes since August, than right about the reason my pick might lose, as I was pretty consistently before then.

Of course, now that I've brought this to the fore, the fates will observe my hubris and make me pay. Anticipating this, I've got a plan to head them off at the pass. I'm going to predict the exact opposite of what I think will happen for the next few weeks, no matter how crazy I look. Trust me, 13-loss, Federico Catubay will KO Vic Darchinyan in one round! It's going to be a fun October, for a lot of reasons.

Regards,
The "Real" Mr. October















This punk's got nothing on me.

A Little Gem

I just witnessed a terrific tussle between tiny pugilists Fernando Montiel and Luis Melendez for Montiel's super-flyweight (115 lbs.) belt. Versus, which aired it, replays the hell out of their fights, so you'll probably get a chance to see it soon just by channel-surfing. But here's a quick summary if you don't care to:

Second round, Melendez stuns Montiel. Close back and forth for a while. Sixth round, Montiel decks Melendez literally as the bell rings, and when Melendez gets up, Montiel puts his arm around him and walks him back to Melendez' corner, both smiling. Within the first minute of the seventh, Melendez now decks Montiel. He's badly hurt but survives the round. In the eighth Montiel buzzes Melendez, nearly decking him again. Montiel begins to take over but the toll of the fight is that his face is practically mush. Montiel KO's Melendez in the 12th with but a minute left. Ring announcer Michael Buffer declares that the crowd should give a round of applause for "a magnificent title fight." They do.

That is all.

Five About Fighting: D.A.R.E. II, Easy Call, Wussing Out, Getting Selfish And A Telling Diss

Four random thoughts, plus one prediction.

1. Revisiting the Shane Mosley drug question, a number of boxing writers want to let this one slide. Mosley, after all, has never behaved like anything but a model citizen and he's a legendary fitness freak, so what would compel him to succumb to the temptation of an extra edge? I don't doubt either of those facts, but Mosley's excuse -- "I didn't know what I was taking" -- is identical to the rote denial offered by less model citizens, and not a particularly good one. It's only value is that, unless someone else brings forth proof otherwise, it can't be debunked automatically. But as Bad Left Hook posed the question, "You're telling me Mosley and his handlers would take something without knowing precisely what it is? Even though the steroids were undetectable, it seems a little too risky." It's even stranger since Mosley is apparently Mr. Goodbody. Whereas Bad Left Hook opts to trust Mosley, I'm going to err in the direction of skepticism.
2. I don't have much to say about Sam Peter fighting Jameel McCline Saturday on Showtime. Peter's going to knock him out around the sixth, confidence 99%, allegiance to Peter. It's not that McCline's a bad fighter, and yes, his height could pose a problem to the relatively tree trunk-like Peter. But McCline's job, so far as I can tell, is to lose against the elite talents of his division, and Peter's no worse than the second best heavyweight. If Zuri Lawrence -- Zuri Lawrence, for chrissakes -- beat McCline, Peter should have no trouble. Still, I'll probably be watching, as it's hard for me to justify the $50 on Manny Pacquiao-Marco Antonio Barrera II, also airing Saturday on HBO PPV. It's going to be expensive over the next few months if I buy every nifty pay per view coming down the pike.
3. I've gone soft on "The Contender," a little. The two contestants last week -- Stubby Lopez and Wayne McCantpunch or whatever their names were -- put on a pretty decent scrap considering neither of them were all that good. I loved the spirit of Stubby, who looked like he was going to be a sitting duck with that frame of his and his late start at the fight game. But as a boxing fan, I really enjoyed some of the behind-the-scenes stuff, I liked watching the fighters get prepared, I thought the scene with Sam Soliman in the icewater tub was great and yes, I even got a little emotional about the family scenes. I still was annoyed by some of the reality show's already-cliched conventions, like the ultra-dramatic music when the fighters come to sit down and review the night before, but the music truly works during the fights, and they've cut back since last I saw on the dopey sound effects. Tonight's episode was OK, too, with a nice fight between Sakio Bika and Donnie McCrary, although man is that Bika an awkward cat. I liked it enough to watch if not much else is on, but it still isn't appointment television for me.
4. There are all kinds of mysterious goings-on surrounding whom David Diaz, a 135-pound beltholder, and Joshua Clottey, a 147-pound contender, will fight next. I won't get into the specifics, but things as they look now suggest that Diaz will fight Michael Katsidis and Clottey will fight Luis Collazo. I'd like both, please. See how selfish I'm getting, after one weekend of being spoiled by excellent fights? Both of those are very intriguing matchups, albeit between people hardly anyone has heard of. Katsidis has star potential, and Diaz is the kind of tough hombre who can bring it out of him if he doesn't beat it out of him. With the other two lightweight Diazes, Juan and Julio, ready to rumble next weekend, it would be an excellent start to attaining some clarity about who's the best in the division. Clottey and Collazo are both peculiar stylists whose contrasts could make for a very interesting bout, and each have the potential to break into the stacked welterweight upper ranks, but they need to earn it against each other.
5. Once more into Taylor-Pavlik: Over at TheSweetScience.com, Jermain Taylor's promoter, Lou DiBella, totally dissed Taylor's trainer, Emmanuel Steward, for his advice between the second and third rounds, just after Taylor nearly had Kelly Pavlik KO'd. I suspect what has been a rocky partnership between Taylor and Steward may not last much longer. Some of the fault lies with Taylor's stubbornness -- how many times has he done the exact opposite of what Steward asked him? -- but I think general bad chemistry is also to blame. Maybe it's time for Taylor to bring in someone new, or the trainer who led him to the middleweight (160 lbs.) championship, Pat Burns.

It turns out that if you examine Slim Goodbody's insides closely, you can see he has a hematocrit level of 52.2, "off the charts," according to experts.

Saturday Night Revisited

There's plenty yet to reflect upon about Saturday night's fights, so I shall.

• Consensus is, new middleweight (160 lbs.) champ Kelly Pavlik became a star this weekend. Certainly, within the world of boxing, he has arrived. Anyone who follows the sport but hadn't witnessed much of what Pavlik can do must have liked what they saw from him on Saturday night. Over at Maxboxing.com and kindred blog Boxingchronicles.blogspot.com, there are nominations for him as Fighter of the Year, and I'm inclined to agree -- lesser-known bantamweight (118 lbs.) Gerry Penalosa has a decent case, but Pavlik in 2007 has soundly KO'd tough gatekeeper Jose Luis Zertuche, feared contender Edison Miranda and division champion Jermain Taylor. That's an impressive resume, and it's hard to imagine anyone equaling it despite all the great fights still ahead this year. Obviously, I'm a fan of Pavlik, a fellow Midwesterner who possesses all of the region's best qualities (humble, friendly, etc.), and have been for a little more than a year, when I first saw him. And he does have breakout star potential. I watched Taylor-Pavlik with a roomful of people who haven't seen a fight in ages, and he impressed. His personality passes the star test, too; everyone in the room laughed when Pavlik answered HBO interviewer Larry Merchant's post-fight question about what he was thinking when he was nearly knocked out in the second round thusly: "You know what I was really thinking? Shit, this is going to be a long night." And yes, it helps that he's white, not that it should matter. Nonetheless, I think it's going to take more of Pavlik continuing to do what he does best before he gets the kind of widespread recognition he deserves. A highlight on ESPN, plus maybe the chance click on a headline at a sports website, is about the most your average non-boxing fan will have seen of Pavlik until such point he wins enough fights like this that he can't be ignored. I think he can do it, but it's still a little ways off. Maybe if some of the other fights ahead for 2007 deliver on their promise as much as Taylor-Pavlik did, the rising tide lifts all boats.
  
• A Taylor-Pavlik rematch no longer is as predestined as it appeared Sunday morning, just to revisit a subject of yesterday's post. Dan Rafael reports that Taylor's team probably won't want to put him in against Pavlik again, at least anytime soon. Pavlik's promoter, Bob Arum -- basking in some deserved praise for how he's brought along this raw talent at precisely the right speed -- is looking for an interim fight for Pavlik first, perhaps against popular Irish fighter John Duddy, German belt-holder Arthur Abraham or former "Contender" winner Sergio Mora. I think Pavlik would absolutely slaughter Duddy, find the tricky Mora a surprisingly difficult test and wage a pretty nice battle with Abraham. All but the Abraham battle sound like great moneymakers that could help build Pavlik's star potential, with the Abraham fight maybe being the best one from a boxing purist's perspective. Interestingly, super middleweight (168 lbs.) champ Joe Calzaghe has invited Pavlik to his November match against Mikkel Kessler, and in his politely British way, hinted that he wants to fight the newly crowned middleweight champion. Whether this is an indicator that the speedy, awkward but more technically sound Calazaghe believes he would obliterate Pavlik, or a way of lining up options for bigger money in negotiations with Bernard Hopkins following a victory over Kessler, or just an indicator that Pavlik has fully arrived at stardom, I wouldn't pretend to know. But Calzaghe can't possibly in one breath talk about how he won't look past Kessler the way Taylor might have looked past Pavlik then in the next talk about fighting Pavlik. Not that I wouldn't like to see that one. My bet is, Pavlik hangs around at middleweight a little longer before going to 168. Scarily, Maxboxing.com's Doug Fischer, who's seen Pavlik fight above 160 -- I saw him fight at the not-much-different 161 once -- says he's even more powerful when he's not drained from making weight.
  
• Say, there are two souls on the planet besides myself that wondered about whether the ref should have given Taylor a standing eight count prior to calling it a night in the seventh. Not only did I propose this loudly Saturday night to the denizens of the Virginia locale where I viewed the fight, but I also called my boy Bob -- the person I viewed as most likely to be willing to see Taylor continue, given his good-natured gruffness about KOs -- only to find out I was all alone in my protests. But Fischer and a reader who e-mailed him showed that I wasn't so foolish all by my lonesome, with Fischer, too, backing down in the end. (In another assessment of my relative rightness, this one far more favorable, I originally thought to type in my prediction post, "I should call a seventh round KO for Pavlik," but feeling some heat from the number of experts who were predicting a Taylor win, I unfortunately moved my call to the ninth. Cowardly move.)
  
• Andre Berto, at least, is convinced of the viewpoint that he should have been smarter on defense in his eventual knockout of David Estrada in a great welterweight (147 lbs.) crossroads match. I still say Estrada hits most everyone plenty early on, but Berto's defense looked far improved late, suggesting he might have the capacity if not the will. Also, he astutely noted he should have gone to Estrada's body more often. As anyone from the aforementioned Virginia locale can attest, I proclaimed frequently and with growing irritation that I thought both Berto and Pavlik should have thrown more body punches, as did Fischer. Berto, I've noticed, is getting reviews ranging from "he's clearly ready for stardom" to "he's got a lot to work on before he moves up," with me offering the rare review somewhere between those two extremes.
  
• I need to get Tivo, already. On Saturday I missed another of my favorite fighters, light heavyweight (175 lbs.) belt-holder Chad Dawson, and caught on replay just a few sizzling rounds of the opening bout on the Showtime card, bantamweights (118 lbs.) Luis Perez and Joseph Agbeko. I've read that Perez faded thereafter, but it still would have been nice to see the drama through to the end, and my very tolerant girlfriend understandably thew in the towel to call a halt to me watching more boxing from 2 a.m. to 4 a.m. or so, as I was nearly as unconscious as Taylor was in the seventh by then. There were plenty of other fights Saturday night I'd have loved to see, but even Tivo couldn't have saved me there, since few of them were televised. One, on the undercard of Taylor-Pavlik, heralded the return of former welterweight champion Carlos Quintana. Quintana is exactly the kind of boxer Berto should take on next, incidentally. He's what I had in mind by way of borderline top 10 contenders who could offer seasoning. Let's make it happen.
  

A Fitting Kickoff To Boxing's New Glory Days

And so began a four-month stretch of the sweet science so good that it's gone from "best in 10 years" to "best in 25 years" to "one of the best in history."

This was, without a doubt, a wholly satisfying night of boxing.

JERMAIN TAYLOR - KELLY PAVLIK

Anytime your heart is beating fast watching a fight, you know you're seeing a good one.

The first round had plenty of back-and-forth, dramatic action. The second saw Taylor come one effective combination or flush blow more from checking Pavlik out for the night, with Pavlik enduring one knockdown and miraculously avoiding another. As Pavlik was sticking his tongue out at Taylor after delivered his first beautiful combo, Taylor was getting serious and made his man pay. In the third, Pavlik, somehow rejuvenated, began to establish what I've thought of him all along -- while he's primarily a puncher, and one of the sport's hardest hitters, he also knows a little about the finer art of boxing. For the rest of the show, I thought Pavlik more or less out-boxed Taylor, keeping him on the end of his jab. Taylor, clearly the faster of the pair, won several of the ensuing rounds, and in many of them landed the more serious shots, but I had Pavlik ahead by two going into the decisive seventh, more like HBO's Harold Lederman than all three judges who had Taylor in the lead.

And then Pavlik made the judges irrelevant with a straight right hand from hell, his signature punch, followed up by a flurry of blows that featured a duo of consciousness-erasing uppercuts. I wanted referee Steve Smoger to give Taylor the count, just to see if he could muster continuing -- for all my disdain for Taylor's performances of late, he fought this one with ferocity and almost won. But everyone around me insisted Taylor was slumped over in a heap that made it clear he wasn't going to rise, and Smoger, with his reputation for letting fights continue well past when they should, looked at Taylor and knew it was over. I concede my wrongness here, but it came from a place of wanting to give an admirable champ every chance he could to defend his title.

Two things decided this fight, I think. First, Pavlik proved decisively that he was more than some average plodder, as Taylor's team had derided him. After Taylor proved in the second round that his own lack of knockouts lately was a fluke, Pavlik got smart, working cautiously off his jab until the moment arrived for his true calling, the destructive KO. Second, Taylor didn't look as horrendous technically as he has lately, but he still made his share of mistakes. As he said in the interview afterwards -- correctly, I think -- his team was screaming for the uppercut in the second round as Pavlik stumbled into him repeatedly, and he should have given them a few. He managed to gamely fight his way off the ropes several times, but the time he didn't, hurt in the seventh, he didn't have the senses to hold on, and when he didn't it was too late. Pavlik's defense wasn't as leaky late as it was early, but a busier Taylor might have taken advantage of a few more opportunities.

Next for the winner and loser: Taylor wants a rematch, and is entitled to one by contract. Pavlik wants to give it to him. I'd watch again, and despite Pavlik's conclusive KO, I wouldn't be so certain of a blowout this time. These two are, if not the "perfect matchup" as hyped, a pretty damn good one. I don't care much whether a rematch happens at middleweight (160 lbs.) or a move up in weight to somewhere below super middleweight (168 lbs.) -- the matchup remains unchanged.

ANDRE BERTO - DAVID ESTRADA

Young Berto conquered his biggest mountain yet, knocking out the very tough Estrada in the 11th.

I thought this very entertaining bout could have been stopped around the ninth. After an explosive eighth round that nearly matched the round-of-the-year candidate in the third, it was obvious to me that Estrada had mounted his last hurrah. Make no mistake, Estrada made a fight of this one. Berto was trying to outclass the crude brawler by working off his jab, but Estrada's effective lunges gave Berto no choice but to stand and trade in spots. Only after getting the better of Estrada in those trades was Berto able to play it a little safer, since he'd made Estrada understand that standing toe-to-toe might get him a one-way ticket to the canvas.

Berto looked good, I say. Yes, he got hit plenty early on, but most of Estrada's opponents do. And Estrada got his face rearranged plenty along the way.

Next for the winner: Here comes the big question. As well as Berto performed, which of the jam-packed welterweight (147 lbs.) division's elite could he beat? I would bet against Berto vs. Floyd Mayweather, Jr., Miguel Cotto, Shane Mosley, Paul Williams, Antonio Margarito and Kermit Cintron. I think he'd have serious trouble beating Oscar De La Hoya, Joshua Clottey, Luis Collazo and others. Maybe he should continue to accumulate seasoning against borderline top-10 guys, wait for some of the year's big welterweight fights to settle the pecking order, then launch a challenge against one of the best late next year. He'll find out what he's made of, and even if he loses, he's a fun action fighter whom I would still admire in defeat and he would still just be 25 -- plenty of time to rebound from a loss.
Next for the loser: I really like Estrada. I want him to win a championship, the dream of every fighter, even with the belts having been diluted by the proliferation of sanctioning organizations. Problem is, it just isn't going to happen at welterweight. He has trouble getting down to 147, as his problems on the scale Friday demonstrated. His most recent fights came at junior middleweight (154 lbs.), and he scored KOs there, so he might even be more powerful in a division where he's not weight-drained. Good news: the junior middleweight division might be the most putrid. The likes of Cory Spinks and Vernon Forrest may be a bridge too far, but I bet he could maybe knock off one of the other two. Go north, Estrada. Win a belt, make a bit more money, then retire while you still have your health. Careers like yours don't always end happily, and you still have a chance at it.