Saturday Night Revisited

There's plenty yet to reflect upon about Saturday night's fights, so I shall.

• Consensus is, new middleweight (160 lbs.) champ Kelly Pavlik became a star this weekend. Certainly, within the world of boxing, he has arrived. Anyone who follows the sport but hadn't witnessed much of what Pavlik can do must have liked what they saw from him on Saturday night. Over at Maxboxing.com and kindred blog Boxingchronicles.blogspot.com, there are nominations for him as Fighter of the Year, and I'm inclined to agree -- lesser-known bantamweight (118 lbs.) Gerry Penalosa has a decent case, but Pavlik in 2007 has soundly KO'd tough gatekeeper Jose Luis Zertuche, feared contender Edison Miranda and division champion Jermain Taylor. That's an impressive resume, and it's hard to imagine anyone equaling it despite all the great fights still ahead this year. Obviously, I'm a fan of Pavlik, a fellow Midwesterner who possesses all of the region's best qualities (humble, friendly, etc.), and have been for a little more than a year, when I first saw him. And he does have breakout star potential. I watched Taylor-Pavlik with a roomful of people who haven't seen a fight in ages, and he impressed. His personality passes the star test, too; everyone in the room laughed when Pavlik answered HBO interviewer Larry Merchant's post-fight question about what he was thinking when he was nearly knocked out in the second round thusly: "You know what I was really thinking? Shit, this is going to be a long night." And yes, it helps that he's white, not that it should matter. Nonetheless, I think it's going to take more of Pavlik continuing to do what he does best before he gets the kind of widespread recognition he deserves. A highlight on ESPN, plus maybe the chance click on a headline at a sports website, is about the most your average non-boxing fan will have seen of Pavlik until such point he wins enough fights like this that he can't be ignored. I think he can do it, but it's still a little ways off. Maybe if some of the other fights ahead for 2007 deliver on their promise as much as Taylor-Pavlik did, the rising tide lifts all boats.
  
• A Taylor-Pavlik rematch no longer is as predestined as it appeared Sunday morning, just to revisit a subject of yesterday's post. Dan Rafael reports that Taylor's team probably won't want to put him in against Pavlik again, at least anytime soon. Pavlik's promoter, Bob Arum -- basking in some deserved praise for how he's brought along this raw talent at precisely the right speed -- is looking for an interim fight for Pavlik first, perhaps against popular Irish fighter John Duddy, German belt-holder Arthur Abraham or former "Contender" winner Sergio Mora. I think Pavlik would absolutely slaughter Duddy, find the tricky Mora a surprisingly difficult test and wage a pretty nice battle with Abraham. All but the Abraham battle sound like great moneymakers that could help build Pavlik's star potential, with the Abraham fight maybe being the best one from a boxing purist's perspective. Interestingly, super middleweight (168 lbs.) champ Joe Calzaghe has invited Pavlik to his November match against Mikkel Kessler, and in his politely British way, hinted that he wants to fight the newly crowned middleweight champion. Whether this is an indicator that the speedy, awkward but more technically sound Calazaghe believes he would obliterate Pavlik, or a way of lining up options for bigger money in negotiations with Bernard Hopkins following a victory over Kessler, or just an indicator that Pavlik has fully arrived at stardom, I wouldn't pretend to know. But Calzaghe can't possibly in one breath talk about how he won't look past Kessler the way Taylor might have looked past Pavlik then in the next talk about fighting Pavlik. Not that I wouldn't like to see that one. My bet is, Pavlik hangs around at middleweight a little longer before going to 168. Scarily, Maxboxing.com's Doug Fischer, who's seen Pavlik fight above 160 -- I saw him fight at the not-much-different 161 once -- says he's even more powerful when he's not drained from making weight.
  
• Say, there are two souls on the planet besides myself that wondered about whether the ref should have given Taylor a standing eight count prior to calling it a night in the seventh. Not only did I propose this loudly Saturday night to the denizens of the Virginia locale where I viewed the fight, but I also called my boy Bob -- the person I viewed as most likely to be willing to see Taylor continue, given his good-natured gruffness about KOs -- only to find out I was all alone in my protests. But Fischer and a reader who e-mailed him showed that I wasn't so foolish all by my lonesome, with Fischer, too, backing down in the end. (In another assessment of my relative rightness, this one far more favorable, I originally thought to type in my prediction post, "I should call a seventh round KO for Pavlik," but feeling some heat from the number of experts who were predicting a Taylor win, I unfortunately moved my call to the ninth. Cowardly move.)
  
• Andre Berto, at least, is convinced of the viewpoint that he should have been smarter on defense in his eventual knockout of David Estrada in a great welterweight (147 lbs.) crossroads match. I still say Estrada hits most everyone plenty early on, but Berto's defense looked far improved late, suggesting he might have the capacity if not the will. Also, he astutely noted he should have gone to Estrada's body more often. As anyone from the aforementioned Virginia locale can attest, I proclaimed frequently and with growing irritation that I thought both Berto and Pavlik should have thrown more body punches, as did Fischer. Berto, I've noticed, is getting reviews ranging from "he's clearly ready for stardom" to "he's got a lot to work on before he moves up," with me offering the rare review somewhere between those two extremes.
  
• I need to get Tivo, already. On Saturday I missed another of my favorite fighters, light heavyweight (175 lbs.) belt-holder Chad Dawson, and caught on replay just a few sizzling rounds of the opening bout on the Showtime card, bantamweights (118 lbs.) Luis Perez and Joseph Agbeko. I've read that Perez faded thereafter, but it still would have been nice to see the drama through to the end, and my very tolerant girlfriend understandably thew in the towel to call a halt to me watching more boxing from 2 a.m. to 4 a.m. or so, as I was nearly as unconscious as Taylor was in the seventh by then. There were plenty of other fights Saturday night I'd have loved to see, but even Tivo couldn't have saved me there, since few of them were televised. One, on the undercard of Taylor-Pavlik, heralded the return of former welterweight champion Carlos Quintana. Quintana is exactly the kind of boxer Berto should take on next, incidentally. He's what I had in mind by way of borderline top 10 contenders who could offer seasoning. Let's make it happen.
  

A Fitting Kickoff To Boxing's New Glory Days

And so began a four-month stretch of the sweet science so good that it's gone from "best in 10 years" to "best in 25 years" to "one of the best in history."

This was, without a doubt, a wholly satisfying night of boxing.

JERMAIN TAYLOR - KELLY PAVLIK

Anytime your heart is beating fast watching a fight, you know you're seeing a good one.

The first round had plenty of back-and-forth, dramatic action. The second saw Taylor come one effective combination or flush blow more from checking Pavlik out for the night, with Pavlik enduring one knockdown and miraculously avoiding another. As Pavlik was sticking his tongue out at Taylor after delivered his first beautiful combo, Taylor was getting serious and made his man pay. In the third, Pavlik, somehow rejuvenated, began to establish what I've thought of him all along -- while he's primarily a puncher, and one of the sport's hardest hitters, he also knows a little about the finer art of boxing. For the rest of the show, I thought Pavlik more or less out-boxed Taylor, keeping him on the end of his jab. Taylor, clearly the faster of the pair, won several of the ensuing rounds, and in many of them landed the more serious shots, but I had Pavlik ahead by two going into the decisive seventh, more like HBO's Harold Lederman than all three judges who had Taylor in the lead.

And then Pavlik made the judges irrelevant with a straight right hand from hell, his signature punch, followed up by a flurry of blows that featured a duo of consciousness-erasing uppercuts. I wanted referee Steve Smoger to give Taylor the count, just to see if he could muster continuing -- for all my disdain for Taylor's performances of late, he fought this one with ferocity and almost won. But everyone around me insisted Taylor was slumped over in a heap that made it clear he wasn't going to rise, and Smoger, with his reputation for letting fights continue well past when they should, looked at Taylor and knew it was over. I concede my wrongness here, but it came from a place of wanting to give an admirable champ every chance he could to defend his title.

Two things decided this fight, I think. First, Pavlik proved decisively that he was more than some average plodder, as Taylor's team had derided him. After Taylor proved in the second round that his own lack of knockouts lately was a fluke, Pavlik got smart, working cautiously off his jab until the moment arrived for his true calling, the destructive KO. Second, Taylor didn't look as horrendous technically as he has lately, but he still made his share of mistakes. As he said in the interview afterwards -- correctly, I think -- his team was screaming for the uppercut in the second round as Pavlik stumbled into him repeatedly, and he should have given them a few. He managed to gamely fight his way off the ropes several times, but the time he didn't, hurt in the seventh, he didn't have the senses to hold on, and when he didn't it was too late. Pavlik's defense wasn't as leaky late as it was early, but a busier Taylor might have taken advantage of a few more opportunities.

Next for the winner and loser: Taylor wants a rematch, and is entitled to one by contract. Pavlik wants to give it to him. I'd watch again, and despite Pavlik's conclusive KO, I wouldn't be so certain of a blowout this time. These two are, if not the "perfect matchup" as hyped, a pretty damn good one. I don't care much whether a rematch happens at middleweight (160 lbs.) or a move up in weight to somewhere below super middleweight (168 lbs.) -- the matchup remains unchanged.

ANDRE BERTO - DAVID ESTRADA

Young Berto conquered his biggest mountain yet, knocking out the very tough Estrada in the 11th.

I thought this very entertaining bout could have been stopped around the ninth. After an explosive eighth round that nearly matched the round-of-the-year candidate in the third, it was obvious to me that Estrada had mounted his last hurrah. Make no mistake, Estrada made a fight of this one. Berto was trying to outclass the crude brawler by working off his jab, but Estrada's effective lunges gave Berto no choice but to stand and trade in spots. Only after getting the better of Estrada in those trades was Berto able to play it a little safer, since he'd made Estrada understand that standing toe-to-toe might get him a one-way ticket to the canvas.

Berto looked good, I say. Yes, he got hit plenty early on, but most of Estrada's opponents do. And Estrada got his face rearranged plenty along the way.

Next for the winner: Here comes the big question. As well as Berto performed, which of the jam-packed welterweight (147 lbs.) division's elite could he beat? I would bet against Berto vs. Floyd Mayweather, Jr., Miguel Cotto, Shane Mosley, Paul Williams, Antonio Margarito and Kermit Cintron. I think he'd have serious trouble beating Oscar De La Hoya, Joshua Clottey, Luis Collazo and others. Maybe he should continue to accumulate seasoning against borderline top-10 guys, wait for some of the year's big welterweight fights to settle the pecking order, then launch a challenge against one of the best late next year. He'll find out what he's made of, and even if he loses, he's a fun action fighter whom I would still admire in defeat and he would still just be 25 -- plenty of time to rebound from a loss.
Next for the loser: I really like Estrada. I want him to win a championship, the dream of every fighter, even with the belts having been diluted by the proliferation of sanctioning organizations. Problem is, it just isn't going to happen at welterweight. He has trouble getting down to 147, as his problems on the scale Friday demonstrated. His most recent fights came at junior middleweight (154 lbs.), and he scored KOs there, so he might even be more powerful in a division where he's not weight-drained. Good news: the junior middleweight division might be the most putrid. The likes of Cory Spinks and Vernon Forrest may be a bridge too far, but I bet he could maybe knock off one of the other two. Go north, Estrada. Win a belt, make a bit more money, then retire while you still have your health. Careers like yours don't always end happily, and you still have a chance at it.

While You're At It, Please Do Slap A Fantastic Undercard Fight On There

As if the aforementioned can't-miss showdown between the two best middleweights (160 lbs.) around -- Jermain Taylor and Kelly Pavlik -- wasn't good enough for one Saturday night, HBO put a crackerjack fight on the undercard. In one corner we have Andre Berto, the ESPN 2006 prospect of the year and a crowd-pleasing knockout artist, and in the other we have David Estrada, the tough, brawling borderline contender who was one half of last year's early 2006 fight of the year nominee with Kermit Cintron.

This one has drama written all over it.

Both men are severely allergic to putting it in reverse, preferring to shift their offense into overdrive. Both think a victory in this title eliminator gets them to where they desperately want to go next -- in Berto's case, on the precipice of a title challenge, and in Estrada's case, in line for a rematch with beltholder Cintron and a chance to avenge his last loss. Each inhabit boxing's glamor division, the jam-packed welterweight (147 lbs.) class.

Berto is coming off his near-disastrous win over Cosme Rivera, his first fight against anyone you couldn't call a stiff. Pretty much everyone else before Rivera, Berto had sledgehammered into unconsciousness with his complete array of weaponry. Instead, losing decisively, the crafty Rivera laid out Berto in the sixth with a left uppercut. Berto stumbled back to his corner, slowly recovered -- perhaps aided by some conveniently loose tape on his glove between rounds that caused a delay and gave him time to swat away the tweety birds circling his head -- and opened a nasty cut over Rivera's eye, then pulled out a decision win. From the looks of things, to me, Berto got caught by a beauty of a punch from a more experienced foe as he got impatient and careless in his compulsion to take out Rivera. Yet for some, the knockdown dented Berto's aura of super-prospect. Indeed, the fight did expose him, to me, as having short arms that could be a liability against taller welterweights, like, say, Cintron, who could keep him on the end of a jab. Something to worry about later, maybe.

That shouldn't be an issue with Estrada. His inner boxing computer is programmed to get him inside on his man and slug away. He's got two straight knockouts over borderline opponents since his first KO loss, to Cintron. In a fight where momentum swayed back and forth from round to round and even minute to minute, Estrada gave Cintron, still rebuilding his confidence at the time after his debilitating KO loss to Antonio Margarito, everything he could handle. For most of the fight, no matter what Cintron hit him with, Estrada kept charging. But Cintron's power, and a technique honed by new trainer Emmanuel Steward, eventually shattered the iron chin of Estrada. Either way, Estrada is ferocious, if not a little crude, and it wouldn't be smart to underestimate someone who fights like a wolverine until he can no more.

This is as good an archetypal battle as you're likely to find between fresh young challenger -- Berto's only 24 -- and dangerous gatekeeper.

MY PREDICTION: Berto, by late round KO or decision. I don't think Berto hits as hard as Cintron, but he's not far behind in the league of elite power-punchers. Before the Cintron fight, and even during it, it looked very much like it would take an anvil dropped from a cliff, Wile E. Coyote-style, to put Estrada on the deck. On the other hand, once an unknockoutable fighter is knocked out once, it's usually easier the second time. Even if Estrada lasts to the bell, he's not as technically sound as Berto, I don't think, which should give the young talent the edge he needs to win a decision.
CONFIDENCE: 65%. Not only is Estrada tough, but he's got the edge in experience, having lost to Shane Mosley, Ishe Smith and of course Cintron. That may point to an inability to rise to the occasion, but because Estrada fought so well in some of his losses, I think it can't hurt him to have been in against the better competition. He's also gone the distance more than Berto, so conditioning could work to his favor. One scenario in my mind has Estrada surviving Berto's onslaught then wearing down the younger, greener fighter en route to a decision or even a knockout. A KO is less feasible, though, because I think Berto's knockdown was unique, not an indicator that he can't take a punch. And I expect Berto's going to fight Estrada much smarter than he did in his moments of overeagerness against Rivera. It should be enough.
MY ALLEGIANCE: Like Pavlik, Berto's on my blog's side rail (to the right) of favorite fighters. But I've also got a soft spot for the kind of fighter called a "gatekeeper," as I've mentioned before. I'll be in Berto's corner, but secretly thrilled if Estrada climbs the ropes of his in celebration.















Berto may need the services of Mr. Coyote to hurt Estrada, but either way I expect him to win.

Another Legend For The Beating; Welterweight Wish Fulfillment; Losing Faith Too Fast

• Preview. It is with tremendous remorse that I anticipate Erik Morales' career will be executed this weekend in one of the worst possible ways. I never much cared for Morales, who is something of an insufferable egomaniac, but I respected him. His trilogy with Marco Antonio Barrera is historically great. It was a blazing action three-pack from the two best Mexican fighters at the time who passionately hated one another and merged their resulting brawling impulses with their incredible skill levels. His trilogy with Manny Pacquiao was plenty great, too, a non-stop offensive show for every single round. Morales is a sure hall-of-famer who embodied the word "warrior." He never said no to a challenge and he always stood and fought his foe toe-to-toe. He did so even when outgunned, as he was against Pacquiao by their third meeting; despite all the wear and tear he'd endured in the ring, he decided to go down guns blazing and risk getting knocked out to make a desperation bid at flattening Manilla's favorite son. Yet every warrior must realize when he gets too old to battle younger men, or else face inglorious defeat. Morales is, in the horribly descriptive terminology of boxing, "shot." He's only won one of his last five fights. Not a good sign. He looked awful in one of them, his first fight at lightweight (135 lbs.). His second fight at that weight is coming up Saturday. Not a good sign. Even though he mounted a heroic rally against Pacquiao in their final war, when he went down for the last time, he shook his head and decided not to try to get up. Not a good sign, especially since something similar happened with Arturo Gatti, another warrior whose willpower failed him in his next to last fight; it proved an omen for his final fight, a pitiable slaughter at the hands of a borderline opponent. When willpower goes from a warrior, the end is near. The guy he's fighting Saturday, David Diaz, does not sound like the most dangerous opponent he could have picked, so I suppose that's a good sign. But I don't like the looks of this fight, especially going up against Rafael Marquez-Israel Vasquez II airing on Showtime the same night. I could watch two truly amazing Mexican fighters in their prime in a rematch of their special first meeting... or shield my eyes as one formerly great Mexican fighter gets splattered by a pretty good Mexican-American fighter, plus fork money over to HBO Pay-Per-View for the privilege. I think I'll watch Marquez-Vasquez and hope I read the next day about Morales having tapped some Fountain of Regeneration, but I predict a Diaz mid-round KO or TKO, and a sad one.

Better to remember Morales, at right, as he was, not as he will soon be. (from hbo.com)

• Random. So far, so good on the welterweights (147 lbs.) making the match-ups they should in a deep, deep division of superstars, unheralded talents and promising prospects. Floyd Mayweather, almost universally believed to be the best fighter around, has a deal in place for a December dance with Ricky Hatton, one of Great Britain's favorite all-time boxers and like Mayweather young and unbeaten. Mayweather is probably too unearthly-gifted for Hatton, but there's a chance Hatton, who crowds and wrestles his man into submission, could pose the difficult style challenge needed to press Mayweather. Still, when two of the best face one another, it is a thing to be praised. Even better, Puerto Rican battering ram Miguel Cotto and Shane Mosley, one of his generation's finest, are on track for a November collision. This one is too puzzling for me to call yet, but style-wise, it's a better version of Mayweather-Hatton: Cotto and Hatton both chop you down with body punches and attrition, but Cotto is less one-dimensional, whereas Mayweather and Mosley both rely on blinding speed, but Mosley is more hittable and harder-hitting. Meeting between the winners for divisional supremacy, anyone?

Something spooky about Cotto's deep-set, dark eyes. (from boxeo-boxing.com)

• Wrap-up. There seem to be two schools of thought about what happened to welterweight prospect Andre Berto over the weekend, when he was knocked down and nearly out before recovering to win a decision over Cosme Rivera. One, advanced here by The Sweet Science's Michael Woods, suggests that maybe Berto isn't all he's cracked up to be if he nearly catches some zzz's courtesy a fringe contender like Rivera. The other, advanced here by ESPN's Dan Rafael and elsewhere, suggests that Berto was stepping up to the biggest challenge of his career and when he ran into adversity, he overcame it and will learn from it. I'm inclined to give Berto the benefit of the doubt and side with Rafael et al, and not just because I like bandwagons. Berto is 23 and was bound to face trouble once he graduated from destroying mismatched fighters. Rivera has made a living of late schooling youngsters like Berto -- not long ago he put prospect Joel Julio on his ass before Julio recovered to win. Woods draws attention to important flaws in Berto, such as his short arms and previously untested jaw. And the business with Berto's glove technicalities requiring a lengthy time to fix smacks of his team trying to give their golden goose time to clear the cobwebs in his head. Woods may prove right in the long term about the need to lower expectations for Berto, but credit Berto for going through with his next fight against an even tougher divisional gatekeeper, David Estrada. Let's see what he does then before we diminish Berto much for his close encounter with the Land of Nod.

Andre Berto: The Land of Nod is a wonderfully zany comic book, but I recommend avoiding it as a place to visit. (from jaystephens.com)

Boxing's Biggest Story

The welterweight division is now the biggest story in boxing, and its depth offers such a startling variety of intriguing match-ups that this one weight class -- by itself -- has the potential to push the fight game back into the public eye more consistently than in years. It is said, from time to time, that boxing is only as healthy as its heavyweight division, and that without dominant big men, boxing suffers. That's historically accurate, but only up to a point. After all, the welterweights captured the public's attention in the late 70s and 80s when the legendary likes of Sugar Ray Leonard, Thomas Hearns, Roberto Duran and others roamed the weight class, between 140-147 lbs.

The group currently battling there is probably the best since then. Forget their fight's one-time publicity injection one division higher at junior middleweight: Oscar De La Hoya's decision to return to welterweight and Floyd Mayweather's own return to the weight means boxing's two biggest stars now reside there for any number of fights that could seize the masses' attention. De La Hoya is a rock star who transcends boxing, although he does that pretty well, too; Mayweather is the hip-hop fighter, all flash and skill, his generation's most gifted practitioner. Just below them in the welterweight stratosphere are "Sugar" Shane Mosley, the big-name veteran who toppled De La Hoya twice with speed, power and guts yet nonetheless has never quite won the following he deserved, and Miguel Cotto, the fastest-rising celebrity in the sport who stalks and crushes his opponents with flagrant disregard for what kind of punishment he has to endure to do so. Near that same level is Ricky Hatton, Great Britain's national hero, a frenzied mauler who incites soccer-style chants and whose signature victory over hall of fame-bound Kostya Tszyu is considered by many Brits their country's greatest boxing victory ever. He might move up from the junior welterweight limit of 140 pounds to take on either Mayweather or De La Hoya. Scratching their way to the top are Paul Williams and Kermit Cintron, each of whom earned the adoration of hardcore fight fans in their recent wins -- Cintron with a nasty knockout, Williams with his breathtaking volume of punches, bravery and the coordination he exhibited despite being freakishly tall -- and could break through to the rest of the world with another marquee victory.

And that's just the top seven. From there, the division's borderline top-10 guys are a murderer's row. Antonio Margarito, hyped as the most feared man in boxing before his loss to Williams for thumping young contenders into tears or the hospital, is still dangerous. Zab Judah, despite his recent defeats, looked better than ever against Cotto, demonstrating the speed and power that made him such a sensational phenom before his struggles inside and outside the ring. Joshua Clottey, with his sturdy defense, rock-solid chin and diverse attack, is a tough night for anyone in the division. Luis Collazo, with his difficult counter-punching southpaw style, scared Hatton back down to 140, however briefly, in Hatton's first flirtation with the higher weight class. What's more, the division has potential stars in prospects Andre Berto (knockout artist), Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (son of Mexico's all-time best) and Alfonso Gomez (contestant on the TV show The Contender). Even its dregs would be threats to take over if they switched to a neighboring division, guys like Carlos Quintana, David Estrada, Mark Suarez and Walter Matthysse. Then there are other boxers who could join the weight class soon or come back for a good money fight, such as veteran Ike Quartey, who tested a young De La Hoya like he had never been tested before, or Joel Julio, ESPN's 2005 prospect of the year. Now, let's make it pan out. When some of these same fellows and a few other greats lived at 140 pounds, any number of the best fights never happened. There's too much talent here to do anything but have all of them face off against each other.

A Guy Named Kermit; A Freak; An Ear-Ripper; And A Human Highlight Reel

Coming up Saturday is a triple-header in boxing's most talent-rich division, the welterweights.

Anywhere from one to three of them are going to be good.

--The one with the most potential features the man billed as the most avoided in boxing: Antonio Margarito. He's often compared to Marvin Hagler -- a fighter who is as tough as they come, who puts relentless pressure on you and will make your life a living hell as long as you are still standing, but hasn't gotten a chance to make it to the big stage because people are scared half to death of him. My personal belief is that he's not as big a badass as everyone makes him out to be -- he's a bit slow, has questionable technique, seems to have an occasionally vulnerable chin, is getting old and nearly lost his last fight -- but I can tell you why I wouldn't want to fight him in an anecdote that is not for the faint of heart... In a bout a few years ago that I recently saw on ESPN Classic, he was doing what he does best. That is, indulge in competitive fights where for the first few rounds he looks like he may lose, then start destroying his opponent with pressure, volume, strength and reach. Ever heard the phrase "he boxed his ears off?" Well, Margarito did that. Literally. In as gross a thing as you will ever see in the ring, he hit his opponent with such vicious, ripping punches that his ear began to tear off. The fight was stopped and the opponent was taken to the emergency room, where, I'm happy to say, his ear was sewn back on and he's in fine health today.

His opponent on the 14th is a guy who has all the tools to become a star, albeit a freakish one: Paul Williams. When I say "freakish," I mean freakish. He fights at welterweight, 147 lbs, but stands 6'1" and has -- get this -- an 82-inch reach. That, my friends, is longer than Muhammad Ali, who fought around 50 lbs. heavier. Since Williams looks like a beanpole, you'd never think he'd hit hard, but oh, he does. He is, in many ways, very much like Margarito -- a powerful, tall welterweight who punches non-stop and would rather brawl than keep his opponent at a distance. Williams is faster, younger and seems to have a lot of advantages, but Margarito has a huge experience edge and his toughness is a proven commodity. Williams has fought some good fighters, but nobody like what Margarito is going to bring him. This fight could be excellent and the winner likely gets to take on Miguel Cotto, who recently defeated Zab Judah in the consensus fight of the year so far. A number of experts think the Margarito-Williams match up has a chance to surpass it.

MY PREDICTION: Margarito by TKO, late rounds. He's just too tough and just too experienced for the very green, sometimes-awkward Williams, and I'm guessing Margarito grinds down the beanpole the same way he has just about everyone.
CONFIDENCE: 70%. Margarito looked all-too-beatable against Josh Clottey before Clottey broke his hand. Williams punches harder than Clottey, plus he's younger and faster. This would not be a big upset at all.
MY ALLEGIANCE: Williams. Margarito's crude, wide-punching style, plus the misplaced near-worship of him over at MaxBoxing.com, makes me want to see him get knocked down a notch.














Margarito crushes Cintron. Thank me for not showing you that ear-rip picture.















Guess which one is Williams.

--In another fight, Kermit Cintron takes on Walter Matthysse. Kermit, despite having a silly name, is one of the hardest punchers in boxing. A few years ago, in his big step up toward a belt and superstardom, none other than Margarito totally wrecked him. In fact, Cintron broke down in tears. Since, Cintron has righted his ship in part by hiring Emmanuel Steward, boxing's most accomplished active trainer, and has gone on to win a couple sizzling action bouts that were quite competitive. Matthysse, meanwhile, not that long ago met Paul Williams in a fight that was a huge step up for both, who were considered good, undefeated prospects but not contenders yet. Although Williams won, Matthysse gave him everything he could handle, and the unpolished, gritty Matthysse's status didn't drop much in esteem. This is Matthysse's chance to put himself in the welterweight rankings, and Cintron's biggest stage since the ruinous Margarito loss.

MY PREDICTION: Kermit by mid-round KO. I think Kermit's a better overall fighter than Williams, who KOed Matthysse in the 10th.
CONFIDENCE: 90%. Matthysse's KO percentage is impressive, and Kermit got wobbled a few times in the amazing Estrada fight. Matthysse is not some no-hope underdog, I just don't see anyone this unskilled beating Kermit.
MY ALLEGIANCE: Isn't it obvious? I'm rooting for the guy named Kermit. It helps that he's an exciting fighter.


























Front of face, Cintron: See above, distorted by Margarito. I wish he'd go back to this "nationalistic flavored sno-cone" look.
















Guess which one's Matthysse. (Hint: He's not Williams.)

--Also, Arturo Gatti battles Alfonso Gomez. I really wish Gatti would hang up the gloves. He's been in more ring wars than anyone, and his skills seem in decline. That aside, Gatti (aka "the human highlight reel") has never, ever, ever been in anything but the best fights. He's one of boxing's biggest attractions, and Atlantic City, where he's an adopted son, will be electric when it sees him again. If you've never seen Gatti-Ward I, do yourself a favor and check it out. It is certifiably one of the greatest fights of all time, and Gatti-Ward II and III round it out as one of the greatest fight trilogies of all time, maybe ever. I don't pretend to know much about Gomez; he was on "The Contender" TV show, and he was apparently liked, and he looked OK in the clips I saw, but this is a fight that gives Gatti a chance to show if he has anything left. He's lost a couple bouts lately where he got the tar beat out of him. If there's anyone who deserves a chance to keep fighting when it looks like he ought to quit, it's Gatti, since Arturo has fought entire fights with broken hands; come back from being knocked down and nearly out to win by KO in the same round; and so on.

MY PREDICTION: Gatti by decision. Gomez is stepping up big-time. My guess is Gatti's still got enough in the tank to pull this off in a potentially entertaining slugfest.
CONFIDENCE: 80%. Gatti's a small welterweight, and Gomez has been fighting in higher weight divisions. Says here that the guy who beat Gatti last was a big welterweight who couldn't punch very hard but still destroyed Arturo. What'll he do with an even bigger guy who doesn't punch very hard? I've not seen this remarked upon anywhere.
MY ALLEGIANCE: I can't possibly oppose Gatti, so I'll be cheering him. But in a way, I hope he loses albeit without suffering much. If he can't beat Gomez, surely even he has to know his amazing career is over.












Gatti's sweeping the right hook here in a fight against Ward which looked more like those crazy simultaneous punchfests from Rocky than anything that's ever happened in real life. If you zoom in, you can see all the scar tissue around his eyes.























Gomez, straight from "The Contender" website. Probably taken during some heart-warming moment or the other, plus they likely put a microphone on the camera so you could hear an extra-loud "click."