A Dark Horse Factor In Calzaghe-Kessler

I failed to mention it in my preview yesterday, and immediately regretted it, but I think there's a big potential problem for Mikkel Kessler in tomorrow's mega-fight versus Joe Calzaghe for all the super middleweight (168 lbs.) marbles.

Kessler's nervous.

It's not required to speculate anymore about whether Kessler is nervous, as Calzaghe did. Calzaghe said he thought Kessler was "tightening up" after the stoic, friendly Dane began hurling some trash talk in the direction of the British champ. For Kessler to have done that was certainly out of character. Then Kessler mysteriously began disappearing from conference calls hyping the fight, another strange bit of behavior that might point to nerves.

But speculation is no longer required because Kessler has admitted he's nervous. "You have to be nervous," Kessler said in an interview with Sports Illustrated's Chris Mannix, noting that "This is the biggest fight of my career."

I actually thought -- and I believe some of the HBO commentators did, too -- that Kessler looked nervous in the first couple rounds of his fight this year against Librado Andrade. It was Kessler's first moment in the international spotlight, unless you count the same-day highlight clip of Kessler's blowout of Markus Beyer last year that HBO substituted for showing the actual fight.

But now Kessler's really, really, really in the international spotlight. Every boxing fan in the world is probably going to be doing his or her damnedest to watch Calzaghe-Kesser. Even worse, there are going to be anywhere from 40,000 to 60,000 some-odd fans actually watching Calzaghe and Kessler in person, and almost all of them are going to be Brits, since the fight's in Calzaghe's backyard.

Maybe Kessler was just being refreshingly candid, where another fighter would not be, about his emotional state. Maybe anyone would be nervous leading up to the biggest moment of their entire career. Maybe the trash talk/disappearing act was nothing at all to do with nerves, and maybe, if Kessler is nervous to start the fight, he'll settle down once he tastes a little success, like he did against Andrade.

But if you're a Kessler fan -- and I am; see the list of "favorite fighters" on the right side of the page -- it should be cause for anxiety that Kessler is so, well, anxious. Even if you're not a Kessler fan, and are just looking for a good fight, you should be anxious. Because if Calzaghe jumps on Kessler early, and gets him in a hole, and Kessler never does manage to settle down, this might not be much of a fight at all.




















Our insides are gross and unpredictable.

The Big Big Fight Everybody's Talking About Could Be A Scorcher

Finally. It's almost here. One of the biggest fights of the year. The most important super middleweight (168 lbs.) clash in more than a decade. A rare belt-unifying bout. The consensus champion against the consensus #1 contender. A rising star against boxing's longest-reigning champ. Neither has ever lost once. An event that will draw at least 40,000 fans to a stadium in England. Oh, and for the ladies: I understand that the two combatants are "hotties" who could also model if they wanted.

As close as this weekend is, I wish I could get in a time machine and travel forward to the exact moment this Saturday when the bell rings and Joe Calzaghe and Mikkel Kessler square off. That's how good this could be.

Calzaghe, 35, is the one who comes into Saturday night on top. He's been there for a decade himself, never losing his championship strap once he won it in October of 1997. For every one of those years until 2006, hardly anyone outside of his home base of Wales thought much of Calzaghe, even when he won an 2003 exciting up-and-down slugfest against Byron Mitchell or defeated moderate-sized fish like Robin Reid or Omar Sheika. That's because for every Sheika, there were two fighters that no one ever heard of. But in 2006, he shed his "protected champion" label with a drubbing of Jeff Lacy, whose convincing knockouts and muscular build evoked a smaller Mike Tyson. Calzaghe did it by doing perfectly all the things that make him a great fighter: a pesky southpaw stance; underrated power; punches that come from unconventional directions and that are thrown strangely; blazing hand speed; an iron jaw that easily took what little Lacy could land; and a mastery of distance and pace. Sure, Calzaghe looked terrible against Sakio Bika in his very next fight. But if there's one thing we've learned about Calzaghe, it's that he fights to the level of his competition, and Bika, while no slouch, was an awkward rough-houser who made Calzaghe fight him ugly.

Lucky for us, Calzaghe's in against an excellent fighter this weekend, so he should be at his best. He'll need to be versus Kessler. The 28-year-old Dane has serious one-punch knockout capacity; is technically adept; is as accurate as a heat-seeking missile; and moves his head just enough to stay out of severe harm while he does his own damage. The same way Calzaghe bludgeoned Lacy in 2006, Kessler this year unloaded everything but the kitchen sink on tough contender Librado Andrade. (How Andrade, and Lacy, for that matter, ever made it to the final bell, I will never know.) Before that, he blew out fellow belt-holder Markus Beyer via third round knockout with dozens of simple one-two, left jab-straight right combos. Kessler arrived at his championship belt in just 2005, when he traveled to Australia to unseat Anthony Mundine. Compared to the veteran Calzaghe, then, Kessler is practically a rookie.

There are knocks on both men, though. Some -- not me -- think Calzaghe's shelling of Lacy only proved that Lacy was overrated. Calzaghe, Lacy said before their fight and Kessler is saying now, slaps with his punches, which means he's won by knockout on several occasions not because he hurt anyone but because he created the illusion of having his opponent in trouble with fast, meaningless flurries that forced the referee to step in and call it a night. He does have a disturbing tendency to fight at his best only occasionally, and he's injury-prone. Meanwhile, Kessler's critics see a fighter whose level of competition is just as dismal as Calzaghe's. They say, as does Calzaghe, that Kessler is "robotic," moving only in straight lines and landing only the most predictable punches.

But most of these criticisms are unfair. Between them, Calzaghe and Kessler have steadily been polishing off their division's best, whatever their respective flaws, and now they're fighting each other. Saturday night, we will see one fighter solidify his legacy, or we will see the birth of an international boxing superstar, and I say whoever wins will have his righteous just deserts.

MY PREDICTION: Calzaghe. He made a fool of me for predicting that not only would Lacy win, but it would be a great fight. The only thing great about it was Calzaghe's performance. There's no one quite like him, so you can't prepare all that well. I say he will outfox Kessler with his trickiness and lateral movement en route to a decision closer than the one over Lacy but fairly clear.
CONFIDENCE: 50%. What a cop-out, huh? After watching Kessler shut out Andrade, I was certain Kessler would manhandle Calzaghe. Then, even after I changed my mind and decided to pick Calzaghe, I began noticing a lot of "boxing people" -- the sport's most insidery insiders -- were saying the younger, straighter-punching Kessler would do to Calzaghe what the slugging, looping-punching Lacy could not: Knock him clean out. I still don't know, but at least I made a pick at all, right?
MY ALLEGIANCE: Kessler. A lot of boxing fans have "types," fighters whose styles are especially appealing for one reason or the other. Kessler is mine -- technically sound guys with power who have, as their main weapon, dazzling combinations. And, when in doubt, I go with the better nickname. That means Kessler, "The Viking Warrior," would win my allegiance over Calzaghe, "The Pride of Wales/The Italian Dragon." If I wasn't already committed, that is.














Don't let the smiles fool you; they just got a case of the giggles trying to muster a showbiz stare down. True story. But I'm also not kidding when I say this should be a truly great fight.