A Decision Worse Than Making The Matrix Sequels, A Pair Of Uninformative Blowouts And A Dicey Career Move Off An Impressive Victory

I wrote this Sunday, but I thought we all might let the Miguel Cotto-Shane Mosley thriller soak in for a day and a half or so before I turned my attention to other things. Particularly, there was some talk before Saturday night that the Cotto-Mosley fight card was the best of the year, top to bottom, so I want to give my take on the other match-ups, then visit the other major fight of the night.

So here, in my ongoing roving-named series of quick thoughts, find my Turbo Punches:

• The Joel Casamayor win over Jose Armando Santa Cruz featured by far the worst decision by three judges I've ever seen with my own eyes in real time. I scored it 119-107 for Santa Cruz, and most everyone who scored it on press row had it about the same. That's 11 rounds to 1 against Casamayor, folks, with Casamayor losing an extra point for the 1st round knockdown. Were I feeling generous toward Casamayor -- and given what a jackass he is, I wasn't -- I could have, at most, give him another couple rounds. How two judges saw it as even a narrow victory astounds me, and how one judge saw it as only a narrow win for Santa Cruz is only slightly less astounding. Casamayor did nothing. Nothing. Since when do you get points for running away from someone? His punches, when he bothered to throw them, lacked steam. He was rusty from a 13-month layoff, and, maybe, just plain old at 36. The only thing Casamayor did of note was avoid getting clobbered when he accidentally got caught between the ropes at one point and dodged Santa Cruz's punches Matrix-style by bending halfway over. Plus, Santa Cruz was the aggressor throughout and landed plenty of hard shots against a Casamayor who usually is a defensive maestro. It's shameful that Santa Cruz, a nice, strange little fighter who is always entertaining despite being limited, has a loss on his record because of this decision. This decision is far worse, for me, than the Almazbek "Kid Diamond" Raiymkulov-Miguel Huerta decision this year, because, as Bad Left Hook correctly noted, at least Kid Diamond fought in that one, even though I and everyone else in the world thought he lost. I didn't see the Steve Forbes/Demetrius Hopkins fight this year that everyone thought was a solid Forbes victory that Hopkins somehow won on the scorecards. Hopkins and Casamayor are both Golden Boy-promoted fighters who got gift decisions on Golden Boy-promoted cards (as did, I hear tell, Golden Boy-promoted Daniel Ponce De Leon against Gerry Penalosa this year). I refuse to make allegations where I don't have evidence, and it'd be about the stupidest thing in the world for Golden Boy to be involved in any kind of judicial tampering, but if I were Golden Boy brass, I'd be taking a good hard look at myself about how it is that two of my pay-per-view cards featured three of the consensus three worst decision victories of the year. (Bad Left Hook's got an interesting theory on how the Casamayor decision debacle happened. I recommend checking it out, even though I don't endorse it myself.)
• Speaking of Casamayor: There was a lot of good, frisky debate before the fight, during the broadcast and afterwards in some of boxing's chattering class about whether Casamayor deserves to be called the "true champion" of the lightweight (135 lbs.) division. He holds the Ring Magazine belt, which you earn by beating the man who beat the man who beat the man etc., Ring's commendable attempt to slice through the multi-belt/sanctioning organization morass. I have some thoughts on this, but not the time to give them this second, so I'll be delving into this later in the week.
  
• Former welterweight (147 lbs.) champ Antonio Margarito did, truly, look sensational blowing out Golden Johnson in one round. Those were, truly, some of the best left uppercuts you'll see a right-hander land, and one of the most eye-popping power-punching combinations you're likely to witness. Margarito did, truly, start fast, learning his lesson from the Paul Williams defeat earlier this year where he dug himself about a six round hole on the scorecards just by getting outworked. But let's put this in context. We're talking about Golden Johnson here. Sure, he was a promising lightweight up until about 1998. But he got this fight by upsetting Oscar Diaz last year, who, so far as I can tell, was a prospect whose best win was over freaking Jesse Feliciano in 2005. Jesse Feliciano? Johnson before that had gotten his ass handed to him in three rounds by Vivian Harris in 2001, and has a few other not-so-impressive losses on his record to journeymen like Cosme Rivera, albeit some tough journeymen. One of boxing's best cliches is that "styles make fights." I really think Margarito would cream the shorter and vulnerable Cotto, I do, and Margarito is a good, good fighter. But the fleet-footed Mosley or Floyd Mayweather, Jr. would very likely pick Margarito apart, even with Margarito's height advantage. Nothing I saw in this win over Johnson changed my mind in any way about Margarito, other than to think that maybe if he got a rematch with Williams he wouldn't fight so poorly to start.
• Likewise, Victor Ortiz' first round blowout of Carlos Maussa proved very little, mainly because Maussa looked so terrible. I didn't think that knockout punch was all that convincing, but Maussa responded to it very poorly. He's clearly a spent bullet, having been in some tough fights over the years, including an extended beatdown, albeit one in which Maussa was competitive, at the hands of Ricky Hatton in 2005. Maussa was, in theory, a good step-up fight for a hot young prospect on the verge of becoming a contender in the vicinity of the junior welterweight (140 lbs.)/welterweight divisions. It didn't work out being that way in reality, through no fault of Ortiz' own.
  
• Switching gears to action across the ocean... David Haye's knockout of Jean-Marc Mormeck in France Saturday did prove quite a lot. This is a win over the legitimate champion of the division that proves Haye isn't just a boxing specimen; he's a real fighter. He showed some heart along the way by battling back from a 4th round knockdown and some other hairy moments. Now, he says, he's on his way to heavyweight. But if he's getting wobbled and/or dropped by the likes of Mormeck, and, before him, some dude named Giacobbe Fragomeni, and other naturally smaller men at the cruiserweight limit of 200 lbs., what's Haye gonna do when he gets hit by someone who's tipping the scales at around 260? He said before that he'd only gotten knocked out by Carl Thompson because he struggled so mightily with his weight that his stamina suffered. But before this fight with Mormeck, Haye claimed he'd worked the weight off more studiously, and therefore wouldn't have any stamina problems. What's his excuse for getting decked by Mormeck, then? I'd like to request that Haye stay at cruiserweight. There are some nice money fights for him there, such as a matchup with fellow countryman Enzo Maccarinelli. If he proves during his reign that he truly can take a punch from a 200-pounder, maybe I won't be so skeptical. I think Haye has a heavyweight punch and the kind of speed that could make him an interesting heavyweight contender, but I think those two factors could make him the cruiserweight king for a long time to come, if he devotes himself to his craft.

May the judges of the Casayamor-Santa Cruz fight be forever confined to this restaurant. "Fine eats" or no, it'd get old after a while. Plus, there's the humiliation factor.

Do Believe The Hype

A fight, with power. Mosley, left, Cotto, on the right and with the right.

Another night in November, another fight that glorified boxing.

MIGUEL COTTO-SHANE MOSLEY

Yessir, that sure lived up to the hype.

Rarely will you see that many punches landed in fight that were clear knockout punches without anyone going down. It was exchange after exchange as Shane Mosley and Miguel Cotto did what all great, exciting fighters do: refuse to let a blow go unanswered. And they weren't pitty-pat punches, either -- both men were putting everything they had into almost everything they threw. Strategically, it was a marvel as well. How's this bit of strategy for entertainment: Cotto, the ultimate pressure fighter, spent the second half of the bout going backwards, circling and counter-punching. You know, like Mosley was supposed to do. And you know what? Cotto did it pretty well.

In a fight I scored a draw, Cotto won a close unanimous decision in the eyes of the judges. And in a year filled with legitimate fight of the year candidates, I think this warrants consideration, but ultimately it's behind in my race. Still, with all the hard, clean punching, the back-and-forth and the surprising tactical flip-flop, it was definitely worth the $50 I paid for it.

Consider, besides the bizarre sight of Cotto dancing away from Mosley's shots, the following points of intrigue. 1. Cotto was the far superior jabber. Now, Mosley's never been a true believer in the jab, but you have to admit, despite the good jab Cotto demonstrated against Zab Judah, you wouldn't have predicted that Cotto was going to outjab Mosley. 2. Mosley more or less neutralized Cotto's body attack with his movement and by concentrating on defending his torso. In fact, I'd argue that Mosley was the better body puncher Saturday night. Come on. No way you foresaw that, right? Even though Mosley always has been a good body puncher. 3. Mosley nailed Cotto with every punch he's vulnerable to and then some, including the uppercut (good idea, considering Cotto always comes forward with his head down) straight punches down the middle (which he seems to have trouble defending against for some reason) plus right hooks and lefts to the body (Cotto's hittable, but I can't recall him getting pasted much with those kind of punches before). And Cotto never went down. Never even looked like he would. Even though I questioned Mosley's power at welterweight, he really caught Cotto with some amazing stuff that made me go, "How's Cotto still standing up?"

I think we need to reexamine one very serious knock on Cotto. And despite all the evidence available to me before last night, it's a stereotype I've embraced. That is, Cotto allegedly just does one thing -- pressure, punch to the body, systematically break down his opponent -- but he does it so well it's hard to stop. There's some truth to that. But think back. How cleverly does he employ the constant switching from conventional to southpaw stance? And hasn't he been doing it for a while? Mosley said it after the fight, but I'm going to second it: Cotto's not just a good brawler, he's a good boxer as well. Cotto's got decent speed, or he never would have hit the version of Mosley that was up on his toes in the middle rounds. And he showed he can adjust mid-fight and try new things -- the aforementioned back-pedaling/counter-punching -- so he's got some good ring smarts, too. This is something like the revelation that was Manny Pacquaio's emergence as a great combination brawler/boxer around the time of the second Erik Morales fight; there may have been signs that the fiery young gun could win a chess match, but now there's proof of it.

Cotto's a superstar now. In beating Mosley, he has finally defeated a truly great fighter. I feel like I've not paid much attention to how well Mosley performed here. But I wouldn't be singing Cotto's praises so much if he'd defeated a once-good, now-old fighter. Mosley looked fantastic. It was so close they even landed the exact same number of punches. It was ridiculously even. And Cotto looks better for having come out ahead of a Mosley who was at the top of his game.

Now, if only Cotto could somehow work on that chin of his, because even after the firestorm of Mosley punches Cotto walked through, I think there are bigger-punching welterweights who could seriously rearrange Cotto's world.

Next for the winner: It really ought to be the winner of the Dec. 8 fight between Floyd Mayweather, Jr. and Ricky Hatton. I don't think either Hatton or Mayweather are the kind of welterweights who could rearrange Cotto's world with their punching power. But both pose a threat to him in a different way. And he poses a threat to them. Mayweather, as the supreme thinking man's boxer in the sport today, might very well easily dismantle Cotto; he's like Mosley 2.0. But then, Cotto, as an expert at cutting off the ring, could give Mayweather a run for his money, and with his newly-indisputable boxing skills, might chase down Mayweather, who probably doesn't hit as hard at welterweight as does Mosley. Anyway, I'd like to find out. It wouldn't be a bad consolation prize to see Hatton and Cotto square off. They're very similar, and as an admirer of body punching, I'd have to make sure I wasn't eating any Frosted Flakes during the fight, because I might spit them all over my living room as I felt sympathy pains and winced at some of the hard shots to the ribs those two would be throwing. If Hatton or Mayweather fall through, I sure wouldn't mind seeing Cotto getting a big payday against Oscar De La Hoya. And even though I think Cotto would very likely meet his maker in a fight with Antonio Margarito, it'd be an entertaining affair if it happened. Since Margarito lost to Paul Williams, though, I think he needs to win another fight or two before he gets a money machine like Cotto, since Mayweather, Hatton and maybe even De La Hoya are more deserving. Cotto seems to think the same. No matter which of those four Cotto faces next, it'll be a big, big fight.

Next for the loser: Mosley sounded very much like a man about to retire after the loss to Cotto. I can't blame him. Who needs all this kind of stuff at 36? And Mosley's a warrior who, despite his excellent boxing skills, has stood and traded fearlessly throughout his entire career. Eventually, the miles will catch up to him. The class he showed after the fight in acknowledging Cotto's excellence, plus Mosley's sterling exhibition of bravery and skill during it, mitigated my resentment of his Shane's steroid shenanigans. I have no problem with him retiring after Saturday night. I don't think he's going out a loser -- as I said, I think it was a draw. Still, if he's worried about "getting back in line" at his age, as he said, I can think of a pretty direct path. How about fighting Margarito? Or the loser of Mayweather-Hatton? The winner of either fight would be able to make an excellent case that he deserves a shot at whatever names emerge on the top of the welterweight heap by the middle of next year.

Some "Contender," Some Promotional Tactics, Some Favorites And Some Not

Busy 60+ hour work week for me, sleepy week for boxing. Please find below a series of exceedingly quick, random thoughts (and, apologies -- not much background for the uninitiated to follow along, unless you click the links):

• So much for making Kelly Pavlik the Thomas Hearns to your Sugar Ray Leonard, Sergio Mora. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy, huh?
• Keeping on the "Contender" tip -- I can't blame Alfonso Gomez for having a rough time with Ben Tackie. He gives everyone a rough time.
• Welcome back to the win column, Vic Darchinyan. I know it's philosophically inconsistent to dig Darchinyan but not Mora, but weird hard-punching Armenian assholes amuse me.
• It's looking more and more like we're going to get Juan Manuel Marquez-Manny Pacquiao II at 130 lbs. There's hardly a fight I could want to see more.
• On the down side, how in the world it is a good thing for boxing to schedule Pacquiao's next fight on HBO the same night as Israel Vasquez-Rafael Marquez III? Super-lame.
  
• First Miguel Cotto, then Antonio Margarito, now Pavlik -- throwing out a pitch at a baseball game is a nice, new boxing promotion fad.
• That whole "Dancing With The Stars" gig worked out as well for Floyd Mayweather as it could; he gets publicity but gets kicked off in time to focus pretty well on Ricky Hatton.
• Once more into the "Contender" world -- I'd like to see Peter Manfredo and Jeff Lacy get it on. I like Lacy in that one, but I like it even better for his profile.
• Comcast blows, so I wasn't able to catch the replay through the static, but I'm glad Dmitri Kirilov won a title last weekend. I thought he did against Luis Perez, but the judges didn't.

Mona Shaw is my new hero. I totally agree.

Medicinal Mouthwash

Nothing to wipe the bitter taste out of my mouth left by yesterday's contemplation of Evander Holyfield-Sultan Ibragimov than looking forward to a far better fight, one that shows what's right about boxing these days: ESPN's Dan Rafael is reporting that two young, crowd-pleasing, pugilists with star potential are in discussions to meet in the ring early in 2008. That means the incredible string of fall and winter fights continues unabated, a string that some long-time boxing writers are calling the best in history. For a second, I'll defer the names of the two latest boxers to enlist for a great match-up, and ask you to follow along.

Many of the people I know will be more inclined Monday to ask my opinion of Saturday's Holyfield fight than of the much more interesting Juan Diaz-Julio Diaz fight also happening this weekend. That they will comes from a natural place -- they know Holyfield, but they don't know the Diazes. Likewise, when I mention to these same people some intriguing fight coming up, more often than not, they shrug it off and say, "Never heard of 'em."

There are only a few ways they will ever hear about a great fighter who began his career prior to the mid-90s, or hear about a thrilling fight that happened after the masses began tuning out in droves. One is me talking the ear off of everyone will listen, on this blog or elsewhere, and other boxing fans doing the same. People buzzed about the Jermain Taylor-Kelly Pavlik fight, and as a result, I was happy to find people asking me about it that following Monday morning.

Another way is if the sport handles its business properly. That's what it's been doing of late. Threatened by mixed martial arts, boxing has gotten savvier about promoting itself, but most importantly, the best are fighting the best almost every weekend these days -- something that the UFC was having no problem arranging, but that boxing was failing to do until recently. In the end, it's the chief way to break through people's unwillingness to give new fighters a chance. Forget that they would do it for another sport; people become fans of basketball players when they are no-names in high school, even. Forget that a general lack of open-mindedness prevents a great many people from wanting to listen to any band they haven't heard of until a radio station jams it down their throats. It is what it is.

The best way for fighters to become known is just to be in good fights. Word of mouth helped get people interested in Taylor-Pavlik, as I said before, but people now are going to want to see what Pavlik does next because it was a helluva fight.

I doubt most non-boxing fans have heard of Kermit Cintron or Paul Williams, both welterweight (147 lbs.) belt-holders. Maybe they caught Cintron's unbelievable knockout of Walter Matthysse on YouTube, where it was disseminated wildly. Maybe they've heard of him because he's willing to take on someone from the UFC to settle which sport is best. But probably most haven't heard of him. Williams is even lesser known.

If and when Cintron and Williams fight in early 2008, as ESPN reported they might, it should be riveting. The 27-year-old Cintron is one of the most powerful punchers in all of boxing, always a fan-friendly trait. The 26-year-old Williams puts on a good show, too -- at 6'1" and with a freakish 82-inch reach comparable to Muhammad Ali's, he has knocked out about two thirds of his opponents and embodies the phrase "action-packed," since he throws punches nearly every second of every round. Both are taking risks by fighting each other, since neither are the kind of foe anyone looking for an easy title reign might want to take on. That they are in talks to rumble is just one more reason the welterweight division is in the midst of a renaissance unlike any period since the days Sugar Ray Leonard and Thomas Hearns roamed the weight class, captivating the public at large. Oh, and everyone in the division is fighting everyone.

In 2007 alone, Puerto Rican superstar-to-be Miguel Cotto defeated the ultra-talented Zab Judah in a sold-out Madison Square Garden. Floyd Mayweather and Oscar De La Hoya, both now welterweights, fought at the super welterweight limit (154 lbs.) in the biggest money fight of all time. An HBO tripleheader headlined by Paul Williams' gallant win over the tough, oft-avoided welterweight standard-bearer Antonio Margarito did good business in California. Next, in November, Cotto's fighting Shane Mosley, one of the last remaining big-name fighters from the 90s, in what on paper is the best fight of the year. And in December, Mayweather's fighting Ricky Hatton, a national hero in Great Britain, in a fight that's already sold-out one stadium and a closed-circuit facility to boot.

I apologize for sounding like a broken record by constantly revisiting some of these themes of how great the welterweight division is these days, and how great the fall and winter look for boxing fans. But, hey, it's a good record. And I'm trying to do my part by playing the role of a radio station trying to ram a great track down the throats of anyone out there in hopes that'll catch on and become a smash hit. Right now, boxing deserves it.

A Fitting Kickoff To Boxing's New Glory Days

And so began a four-month stretch of the sweet science so good that it's gone from "best in 10 years" to "best in 25 years" to "one of the best in history."

This was, without a doubt, a wholly satisfying night of boxing.

JERMAIN TAYLOR - KELLY PAVLIK

Anytime your heart is beating fast watching a fight, you know you're seeing a good one.

The first round had plenty of back-and-forth, dramatic action. The second saw Taylor come one effective combination or flush blow more from checking Pavlik out for the night, with Pavlik enduring one knockdown and miraculously avoiding another. As Pavlik was sticking his tongue out at Taylor after delivered his first beautiful combo, Taylor was getting serious and made his man pay. In the third, Pavlik, somehow rejuvenated, began to establish what I've thought of him all along -- while he's primarily a puncher, and one of the sport's hardest hitters, he also knows a little about the finer art of boxing. For the rest of the show, I thought Pavlik more or less out-boxed Taylor, keeping him on the end of his jab. Taylor, clearly the faster of the pair, won several of the ensuing rounds, and in many of them landed the more serious shots, but I had Pavlik ahead by two going into the decisive seventh, more like HBO's Harold Lederman than all three judges who had Taylor in the lead.

And then Pavlik made the judges irrelevant with a straight right hand from hell, his signature punch, followed up by a flurry of blows that featured a duo of consciousness-erasing uppercuts. I wanted referee Steve Smoger to give Taylor the count, just to see if he could muster continuing -- for all my disdain for Taylor's performances of late, he fought this one with ferocity and almost won. But everyone around me insisted Taylor was slumped over in a heap that made it clear he wasn't going to rise, and Smoger, with his reputation for letting fights continue well past when they should, looked at Taylor and knew it was over. I concede my wrongness here, but it came from a place of wanting to give an admirable champ every chance he could to defend his title.

Two things decided this fight, I think. First, Pavlik proved decisively that he was more than some average plodder, as Taylor's team had derided him. After Taylor proved in the second round that his own lack of knockouts lately was a fluke, Pavlik got smart, working cautiously off his jab until the moment arrived for his true calling, the destructive KO. Second, Taylor didn't look as horrendous technically as he has lately, but he still made his share of mistakes. As he said in the interview afterwards -- correctly, I think -- his team was screaming for the uppercut in the second round as Pavlik stumbled into him repeatedly, and he should have given them a few. He managed to gamely fight his way off the ropes several times, but the time he didn't, hurt in the seventh, he didn't have the senses to hold on, and when he didn't it was too late. Pavlik's defense wasn't as leaky late as it was early, but a busier Taylor might have taken advantage of a few more opportunities.

Next for the winner and loser: Taylor wants a rematch, and is entitled to one by contract. Pavlik wants to give it to him. I'd watch again, and despite Pavlik's conclusive KO, I wouldn't be so certain of a blowout this time. These two are, if not the "perfect matchup" as hyped, a pretty damn good one. I don't care much whether a rematch happens at middleweight (160 lbs.) or a move up in weight to somewhere below super middleweight (168 lbs.) -- the matchup remains unchanged.

ANDRE BERTO - DAVID ESTRADA

Young Berto conquered his biggest mountain yet, knocking out the very tough Estrada in the 11th.

I thought this very entertaining bout could have been stopped around the ninth. After an explosive eighth round that nearly matched the round-of-the-year candidate in the third, it was obvious to me that Estrada had mounted his last hurrah. Make no mistake, Estrada made a fight of this one. Berto was trying to outclass the crude brawler by working off his jab, but Estrada's effective lunges gave Berto no choice but to stand and trade in spots. Only after getting the better of Estrada in those trades was Berto able to play it a little safer, since he'd made Estrada understand that standing toe-to-toe might get him a one-way ticket to the canvas.

Berto looked good, I say. Yes, he got hit plenty early on, but most of Estrada's opponents do. And Estrada got his face rearranged plenty along the way.

Next for the winner: Here comes the big question. As well as Berto performed, which of the jam-packed welterweight (147 lbs.) division's elite could he beat? I would bet against Berto vs. Floyd Mayweather, Jr., Miguel Cotto, Shane Mosley, Paul Williams, Antonio Margarito and Kermit Cintron. I think he'd have serious trouble beating Oscar De La Hoya, Joshua Clottey, Luis Collazo and others. Maybe he should continue to accumulate seasoning against borderline top-10 guys, wait for some of the year's big welterweight fights to settle the pecking order, then launch a challenge against one of the best late next year. He'll find out what he's made of, and even if he loses, he's a fun action fighter whom I would still admire in defeat and he would still just be 25 -- plenty of time to rebound from a loss.
Next for the loser: I really like Estrada. I want him to win a championship, the dream of every fighter, even with the belts having been diluted by the proliferation of sanctioning organizations. Problem is, it just isn't going to happen at welterweight. He has trouble getting down to 147, as his problems on the scale Friday demonstrated. His most recent fights came at junior middleweight (154 lbs.), and he scored KOs there, so he might even be more powerful in a division where he's not weight-drained. Good news: the junior middleweight division might be the most putrid. The likes of Cory Spinks and Vernon Forrest may be a bridge too far, but I bet he could maybe knock off one of the other two. Go north, Estrada. Win a belt, make a bit more money, then retire while you still have your health. Careers like yours don't always end happily, and you still have a chance at it.

While You're At It, Please Do Slap A Fantastic Undercard Fight On There

As if the aforementioned can't-miss showdown between the two best middleweights (160 lbs.) around -- Jermain Taylor and Kelly Pavlik -- wasn't good enough for one Saturday night, HBO put a crackerjack fight on the undercard. In one corner we have Andre Berto, the ESPN 2006 prospect of the year and a crowd-pleasing knockout artist, and in the other we have David Estrada, the tough, brawling borderline contender who was one half of last year's early 2006 fight of the year nominee with Kermit Cintron.

This one has drama written all over it.

Both men are severely allergic to putting it in reverse, preferring to shift their offense into overdrive. Both think a victory in this title eliminator gets them to where they desperately want to go next -- in Berto's case, on the precipice of a title challenge, and in Estrada's case, in line for a rematch with beltholder Cintron and a chance to avenge his last loss. Each inhabit boxing's glamor division, the jam-packed welterweight (147 lbs.) class.

Berto is coming off his near-disastrous win over Cosme Rivera, his first fight against anyone you couldn't call a stiff. Pretty much everyone else before Rivera, Berto had sledgehammered into unconsciousness with his complete array of weaponry. Instead, losing decisively, the crafty Rivera laid out Berto in the sixth with a left uppercut. Berto stumbled back to his corner, slowly recovered -- perhaps aided by some conveniently loose tape on his glove between rounds that caused a delay and gave him time to swat away the tweety birds circling his head -- and opened a nasty cut over Rivera's eye, then pulled out a decision win. From the looks of things, to me, Berto got caught by a beauty of a punch from a more experienced foe as he got impatient and careless in his compulsion to take out Rivera. Yet for some, the knockdown dented Berto's aura of super-prospect. Indeed, the fight did expose him, to me, as having short arms that could be a liability against taller welterweights, like, say, Cintron, who could keep him on the end of a jab. Something to worry about later, maybe.

That shouldn't be an issue with Estrada. His inner boxing computer is programmed to get him inside on his man and slug away. He's got two straight knockouts over borderline opponents since his first KO loss, to Cintron. In a fight where momentum swayed back and forth from round to round and even minute to minute, Estrada gave Cintron, still rebuilding his confidence at the time after his debilitating KO loss to Antonio Margarito, everything he could handle. For most of the fight, no matter what Cintron hit him with, Estrada kept charging. But Cintron's power, and a technique honed by new trainer Emmanuel Steward, eventually shattered the iron chin of Estrada. Either way, Estrada is ferocious, if not a little crude, and it wouldn't be smart to underestimate someone who fights like a wolverine until he can no more.

This is as good an archetypal battle as you're likely to find between fresh young challenger -- Berto's only 24 -- and dangerous gatekeeper.

MY PREDICTION: Berto, by late round KO or decision. I don't think Berto hits as hard as Cintron, but he's not far behind in the league of elite power-punchers. Before the Cintron fight, and even during it, it looked very much like it would take an anvil dropped from a cliff, Wile E. Coyote-style, to put Estrada on the deck. On the other hand, once an unknockoutable fighter is knocked out once, it's usually easier the second time. Even if Estrada lasts to the bell, he's not as technically sound as Berto, I don't think, which should give the young talent the edge he needs to win a decision.
CONFIDENCE: 65%. Not only is Estrada tough, but he's got the edge in experience, having lost to Shane Mosley, Ishe Smith and of course Cintron. That may point to an inability to rise to the occasion, but because Estrada fought so well in some of his losses, I think it can't hurt him to have been in against the better competition. He's also gone the distance more than Berto, so conditioning could work to his favor. One scenario in my mind has Estrada surviving Berto's onslaught then wearing down the younger, greener fighter en route to a decision or even a knockout. A KO is less feasible, though, because I think Berto's knockdown was unique, not an indicator that he can't take a punch. And I expect Berto's going to fight Estrada much smarter than he did in his moments of overeagerness against Rivera. It should be enough.
MY ALLEGIANCE: Like Pavlik, Berto's on my blog's side rail (to the right) of favorite fighters. But I've also got a soft spot for the kind of fighter called a "gatekeeper," as I've mentioned before. I'll be in Berto's corner, but secretly thrilled if Estrada climbs the ropes of his in celebration.















Berto may need the services of Mr. Coyote to hurt Estrada, but either way I expect him to win.

Boxing's Biggest Story

The welterweight division is now the biggest story in boxing, and its depth offers such a startling variety of intriguing match-ups that this one weight class -- by itself -- has the potential to push the fight game back into the public eye more consistently than in years. It is said, from time to time, that boxing is only as healthy as its heavyweight division, and that without dominant big men, boxing suffers. That's historically accurate, but only up to a point. After all, the welterweights captured the public's attention in the late 70s and 80s when the legendary likes of Sugar Ray Leonard, Thomas Hearns, Roberto Duran and others roamed the weight class, between 140-147 lbs.

The group currently battling there is probably the best since then. Forget their fight's one-time publicity injection one division higher at junior middleweight: Oscar De La Hoya's decision to return to welterweight and Floyd Mayweather's own return to the weight means boxing's two biggest stars now reside there for any number of fights that could seize the masses' attention. De La Hoya is a rock star who transcends boxing, although he does that pretty well, too; Mayweather is the hip-hop fighter, all flash and skill, his generation's most gifted practitioner. Just below them in the welterweight stratosphere are "Sugar" Shane Mosley, the big-name veteran who toppled De La Hoya twice with speed, power and guts yet nonetheless has never quite won the following he deserved, and Miguel Cotto, the fastest-rising celebrity in the sport who stalks and crushes his opponents with flagrant disregard for what kind of punishment he has to endure to do so. Near that same level is Ricky Hatton, Great Britain's national hero, a frenzied mauler who incites soccer-style chants and whose signature victory over hall of fame-bound Kostya Tszyu is considered by many Brits their country's greatest boxing victory ever. He might move up from the junior welterweight limit of 140 pounds to take on either Mayweather or De La Hoya. Scratching their way to the top are Paul Williams and Kermit Cintron, each of whom earned the adoration of hardcore fight fans in their recent wins -- Cintron with a nasty knockout, Williams with his breathtaking volume of punches, bravery and the coordination he exhibited despite being freakishly tall -- and could break through to the rest of the world with another marquee victory.

And that's just the top seven. From there, the division's borderline top-10 guys are a murderer's row. Antonio Margarito, hyped as the most feared man in boxing before his loss to Williams for thumping young contenders into tears or the hospital, is still dangerous. Zab Judah, despite his recent defeats, looked better than ever against Cotto, demonstrating the speed and power that made him such a sensational phenom before his struggles inside and outside the ring. Joshua Clottey, with his sturdy defense, rock-solid chin and diverse attack, is a tough night for anyone in the division. Luis Collazo, with his difficult counter-punching southpaw style, scared Hatton back down to 140, however briefly, in Hatton's first flirtation with the higher weight class. What's more, the division has potential stars in prospects Andre Berto (knockout artist), Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (son of Mexico's all-time best) and Alfonso Gomez (contestant on the TV show The Contender). Even its dregs would be threats to take over if they switched to a neighboring division, guys like Carlos Quintana, David Estrada, Mark Suarez and Walter Matthysse. Then there are other boxers who could join the weight class soon or come back for a good money fight, such as veteran Ike Quartey, who tested a young De La Hoya like he had never been tested before, or Joel Julio, ESPN's 2005 prospect of the year. Now, let's make it pan out. When some of these same fellows and a few other greats lived at 140 pounds, any number of the best fights never happened. There's too much talent here to do anything but have all of them face off against each other.

Giving The Devil His Due And Two Other Thoughts

• Wrap-up. I'll comment more once I (reluctantly) view the fight on replay, but all accounts suggest Bernard Hopkins-Winky Wright was slightly better than the worst big fight of all time, as I feared it might be. Some are discounting Hopkins' win, arguing that Hopkins essentially defeated a smaller guy, and not very convincingly, who was moving from the middleweight limit of 160 lbs. to fight Hopkins at 170 lbs, thereby proving nothing. True, true, in part. But let's not forget who this little guy is: One of the most flummoxing, avoided defensive fighters of the last couple decades. Humiliator of all-time greats Shane Mosley and Tito Trinidad, and on some scorecards, conqueror of fan favorite Fernando Vargas and Jermain Taylor, the latter being the one who dethroned Hopkins' long middleweight reign. A man who hasn't been beaten in more than seven years. Pound for pound, no worse than the third best active fighter around on most unofficial lists. And a hall-of-famer. Yes, I'd rather endure waterboarding than watch Hopkins in action. But I don't know how this doesn't rise to the level of a significant accomplishment by a 42-year-old man. That he did this in part with a -- perhaps -- intentional headbutt is not surprising; the essence of Hopkins is that he finds a way. It doesn't make me like him any more, but how he did it matters less than that he did.
• Preview. In its beneficence, HBO has deigned to broadcast the Wright-Hopkins replay with another event that no one asked for, Carlos Baldomir versus Vernon Forrest, live. There's a lot to like about Baldomir, no relation to anyone from Middle Earth. He used to sell mops in the streets of Argentina to get by, and as a massive underdog, he upset Zab Judah, along the way nearly knocking him out and making him do that hilarious little dance he does when he gets staggered by a good punch... the one that resembles a puppet getting its strings entangled. And Forrest is praised for his devotion to charity work. But Baldomir is not the world's most exciting fighter -- he's an all-out plodder with little knockout power. And Forrest looks like he has never recovered from the shoulder problems that sidelined him for so long. I'm going to pick Baldomir to out-hustle Forrest on the way to a decision, although I could see Forrest keeping his distance and out-boxing him from the perimeter.
• Update. My pick accuracy is abysmal so far, such that readers might not know of my amazing precognitive powers in predicting things like, for example, Ricky Hatton easily defeating a shot Jose Luis Castillo recently in anything but a candidate for fight of the year, as it was hyped. However, I've synced nicely at times with far more experienced boxing writers. Just today, MaxBoxing's Doug Fischer wrote, in response to a reader's description of Hopkins that was a near-carbon copy of mine, "Regarding Hopkins, I think this line sums it up best: "Now, all Bernard can do is make just enough contact to win rounds, and enough rounds to win a fight." Last week, the New York Post's George Willis, hot now off his NBA referee scandal scoop, noted that Paul Williams would have a rougher time with Miguel Cotto than he did Antonio Margarito, for the same reasons I cited -- although many writers believe everyone will avoid Williams now. Unless Margarito gets a rematch with Williams or the Cotto fight he would have earned by beating Williams, it looks like I'll be in good company with Yahoo's Kevin Iole, formerly of the Las Vegas Review-Journal and one of the better-regarded boxing writers around, who wrote, "He couldn't get the big names in the ring when he had a world title, and he's certainly not going to get them now." Williams' championship heart, one of my central points in the post-fight wrap-up, got headline status the Orange County Register: "Williams shows plenty of heart." ESPN's Dan Rafael remarked, as I did, that Alfonso Gomez scrapping with Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. would make some decent dough. Most every expert would like to see Williams rumble with Kermit Cintron, if neither can get a bigger fight. And while I was off in my predictions, I've proven astute in explaining the reasons why I might end up wrong. Williams' fresher legs against Margarito, Arturo Gatti's size deficit against Gomez and Wright moving up in weight too swiftly to take on Hopkins all were major factors in the outcome of their respective bouts.

Carlos Baldomir has an, um, remarkable get-up that he wears into the ring... Oh, wait. that's Boromir from Lord of the Rings. (From canmag.com)























If you look closely, you can see Vernon Forrest hiding in the... Ahh, I now see the mistake I made here with this one. (From desktopscenes.com)

A Gatti-Inspired, Broken Hand Boxing Blog

As I write this, my finger is in a splint. OK, the title is a bit misleading, but as my pinky nearly turned into a pretzel earlier today when it was dislocated and fractured, I figured I could pay no greater tribute to the day of Arturo Gatti's retirement than to soldier on the way he did so many times: broken bones and all. (wink)

MARGARITO-WILLIAMS

Squirm, Margarito fanboys.

As good as Cotto-Judah was, this was a hell of a good fight that was more competitive than the prohibitive favorite for fight of the year. I'm not ready to nominate it -- Pavlik-Miranda and Marquez-Barrera are right up there, too, for me -- but it's definitely a contender. So many drama points. It featured unexpected dominance early from Williams; a fierce charge by Margarito in the second half; several pyrotechnic exchanges throughout; and a moment of truth for the new champion, the freshly-crowned Williams.

Margarito nearly won the fight on sheer ferocity in round 11. Williams was hampered by an unfair warning that he'd lose a point if he clinched again, so he had little choice but to take a beating. That he won the 12th after that was the most impressive moment of the fight for him -- sure, he looked great for the first six rounds, but we found out in the 12th that Williams has championship-level heart. Big fight. Big moment. The 6'1" (seemingly much taller) Williams came up big, which kind of makes sense, doesn't it?

I have to think nine out of 10 people who watched that fight would call it for Williams. It was a brave showing by Margarito, but he was too slow and Williams was too quick, too fresh and punched way too much -- 1,256 times! -- for the Tijuana Tornado. If Margarito's slavish devotees don't concede his defeat, they are charlatans several times over.

Next for the winner: I want Williams to get his wish -- A matchup with Cotto. After all, if Margarito was lined up to fight him conditional on a win, why doesn't Williams get to replace Margarito? As good as Williams looked tonight, I'd pick Cotto in a barnburner. Cotto is in his prime, unlike the seemingly aging Margarito, and has better fundamentals.
Next for the loser: Despite his respectable showing, it seems to me Margarito has to reestablish himself at an advanced age to get back into the upper eschelon of the welterweight division. Sounds daunting, especially since Margarito was ducked even when he had a belt. If he takes on another top 10 contender -- Luis Collazo, maybe, in a rare style matchup of pressure fighter vs. gifted counterpuncher? -- and wins convincingly, I don't see why he wouldn't have earned it. But this may be a big career setback unless he gets the Cotto fight anyway and wins it.


GATTI-GOMEZ

This was sad.

Gatti got beat up. He looked real, real slow. Too many wars and the weight limbo he aptly self-diagnosed -- too old to make his body squeeze into 140 pounds, too small to be powerful and absorb the punches of bigger men -- did him in. All his punches seemed short even when he connected, like he thought Gomez was a foot closer. He would have had a way better chance against the ghost man he seemed to be aiming at.

Gomez performed better than I expected, and my hunch about the size differential made a huge impact. But this was about Gatti not having anything left.

Next for the winner: What's good for Williams is what's good for Gomez. Gatti was going to take on Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. if he won, and Gomez wants it. We'd find out yet more about what both those fighters have, if so, and it would be good for the sport in a minor way because it would pit a popular TV fighter against the son of a legend, potentially drawing in a handful of non-traditional or lapsed fans.
Next for the loser: My hope -- A fat cigar. A cruise where he reflects upon a grand career. A long, happy life, the kind where people see him on the street and want to hug him instead of getting his autograph. Good night, Mr. Gatti. Boxing will long remember you.

CINTRON-MATTHYSSE

What a knockout. You just don't find many punchers like Cintron these days. Williams TKOed Matthysse in 10; Cintron obliterated him in two. Despite the excellent action in round 1, the fight should've ended after the second knockdown, when Matthysse's legs were wobbly. It would've saved him from getting nearly decapitated by an uppercut, then getting his head crunched to a 45-degree angle by the next punch, which devastated him.

Cintron deserves to move into the top of the welterweight ranks with this win. The Margarito humiliation looks very distant now.

Next for the winner: Why not solve this boxing-UFC thing once and for all? Cintron, with his background as a collegiate wrestler and a willingness to get into the octagon, has a better shot than any boxer at defying the obvious -- a boxer in boxing rules wins against a mixed martial arts fighter, an MMA fighter beats a boxer in MMA rules. I admit I want this to happen because Cintron's strategic advantage would help boxing defeat this inferior sport. If not, I say give him Sugar Shane Mosley. Mosley-Mayweather would be better, but Mayweather's eyeing Ricky Hatton. Mosley backs down from no one, so I bet he'd do it. And if Cotto doesn't end up fighting Williams or Mosley, Cintron-Williams has the potential to be sensational.
Next for the loser: As Monty Python once observed, the key to not being seen is to not stand up. Likewise, the key to not being brutally knocked out is, when you're nearly unconscious, don't stand up. Cheers for the guts, but ouch for the brain. I'd find a better trainer, one who would've thrown the towel in sooner, and maybe one to sand down Matthysse's rough edges. He's got power, an untrainable commodity. For a model of what finding an excellent trainer will do for a power puncher, may I recommend... Kermit Cintron?

A Guy Named Kermit; A Freak; An Ear-Ripper; And A Human Highlight Reel

Coming up Saturday is a triple-header in boxing's most talent-rich division, the welterweights.

Anywhere from one to three of them are going to be good.

--The one with the most potential features the man billed as the most avoided in boxing: Antonio Margarito. He's often compared to Marvin Hagler -- a fighter who is as tough as they come, who puts relentless pressure on you and will make your life a living hell as long as you are still standing, but hasn't gotten a chance to make it to the big stage because people are scared half to death of him. My personal belief is that he's not as big a badass as everyone makes him out to be -- he's a bit slow, has questionable technique, seems to have an occasionally vulnerable chin, is getting old and nearly lost his last fight -- but I can tell you why I wouldn't want to fight him in an anecdote that is not for the faint of heart... In a bout a few years ago that I recently saw on ESPN Classic, he was doing what he does best. That is, indulge in competitive fights where for the first few rounds he looks like he may lose, then start destroying his opponent with pressure, volume, strength and reach. Ever heard the phrase "he boxed his ears off?" Well, Margarito did that. Literally. In as gross a thing as you will ever see in the ring, he hit his opponent with such vicious, ripping punches that his ear began to tear off. The fight was stopped and the opponent was taken to the emergency room, where, I'm happy to say, his ear was sewn back on and he's in fine health today.

His opponent on the 14th is a guy who has all the tools to become a star, albeit a freakish one: Paul Williams. When I say "freakish," I mean freakish. He fights at welterweight, 147 lbs, but stands 6'1" and has -- get this -- an 82-inch reach. That, my friends, is longer than Muhammad Ali, who fought around 50 lbs. heavier. Since Williams looks like a beanpole, you'd never think he'd hit hard, but oh, he does. He is, in many ways, very much like Margarito -- a powerful, tall welterweight who punches non-stop and would rather brawl than keep his opponent at a distance. Williams is faster, younger and seems to have a lot of advantages, but Margarito has a huge experience edge and his toughness is a proven commodity. Williams has fought some good fighters, but nobody like what Margarito is going to bring him. This fight could be excellent and the winner likely gets to take on Miguel Cotto, who recently defeated Zab Judah in the consensus fight of the year so far. A number of experts think the Margarito-Williams match up has a chance to surpass it.

MY PREDICTION: Margarito by TKO, late rounds. He's just too tough and just too experienced for the very green, sometimes-awkward Williams, and I'm guessing Margarito grinds down the beanpole the same way he has just about everyone.
CONFIDENCE: 70%. Margarito looked all-too-beatable against Josh Clottey before Clottey broke his hand. Williams punches harder than Clottey, plus he's younger and faster. This would not be a big upset at all.
MY ALLEGIANCE: Williams. Margarito's crude, wide-punching style, plus the misplaced near-worship of him over at MaxBoxing.com, makes me want to see him get knocked down a notch.














Margarito crushes Cintron. Thank me for not showing you that ear-rip picture.















Guess which one is Williams.

--In another fight, Kermit Cintron takes on Walter Matthysse. Kermit, despite having a silly name, is one of the hardest punchers in boxing. A few years ago, in his big step up toward a belt and superstardom, none other than Margarito totally wrecked him. In fact, Cintron broke down in tears. Since, Cintron has righted his ship in part by hiring Emmanuel Steward, boxing's most accomplished active trainer, and has gone on to win a couple sizzling action bouts that were quite competitive. Matthysse, meanwhile, not that long ago met Paul Williams in a fight that was a huge step up for both, who were considered good, undefeated prospects but not contenders yet. Although Williams won, Matthysse gave him everything he could handle, and the unpolished, gritty Matthysse's status didn't drop much in esteem. This is Matthysse's chance to put himself in the welterweight rankings, and Cintron's biggest stage since the ruinous Margarito loss.

MY PREDICTION: Kermit by mid-round KO. I think Kermit's a better overall fighter than Williams, who KOed Matthysse in the 10th.
CONFIDENCE: 90%. Matthysse's KO percentage is impressive, and Kermit got wobbled a few times in the amazing Estrada fight. Matthysse is not some no-hope underdog, I just don't see anyone this unskilled beating Kermit.
MY ALLEGIANCE: Isn't it obvious? I'm rooting for the guy named Kermit. It helps that he's an exciting fighter.


























Front of face, Cintron: See above, distorted by Margarito. I wish he'd go back to this "nationalistic flavored sno-cone" look.
















Guess which one's Matthysse. (Hint: He's not Williams.)

--Also, Arturo Gatti battles Alfonso Gomez. I really wish Gatti would hang up the gloves. He's been in more ring wars than anyone, and his skills seem in decline. That aside, Gatti (aka "the human highlight reel") has never, ever, ever been in anything but the best fights. He's one of boxing's biggest attractions, and Atlantic City, where he's an adopted son, will be electric when it sees him again. If you've never seen Gatti-Ward I, do yourself a favor and check it out. It is certifiably one of the greatest fights of all time, and Gatti-Ward II and III round it out as one of the greatest fight trilogies of all time, maybe ever. I don't pretend to know much about Gomez; he was on "The Contender" TV show, and he was apparently liked, and he looked OK in the clips I saw, but this is a fight that gives Gatti a chance to show if he has anything left. He's lost a couple bouts lately where he got the tar beat out of him. If there's anyone who deserves a chance to keep fighting when it looks like he ought to quit, it's Gatti, since Arturo has fought entire fights with broken hands; come back from being knocked down and nearly out to win by KO in the same round; and so on.

MY PREDICTION: Gatti by decision. Gomez is stepping up big-time. My guess is Gatti's still got enough in the tank to pull this off in a potentially entertaining slugfest.
CONFIDENCE: 80%. Gatti's a small welterweight, and Gomez has been fighting in higher weight divisions. Says here that the guy who beat Gatti last was a big welterweight who couldn't punch very hard but still destroyed Arturo. What'll he do with an even bigger guy who doesn't punch very hard? I've not seen this remarked upon anywhere.
MY ALLEGIANCE: I can't possibly oppose Gatti, so I'll be cheering him. But in a way, I hope he loses albeit without suffering much. If he can't beat Gomez, surely even he has to know his amazing career is over.












Gatti's sweeping the right hook here in a fight against Ward which looked more like those crazy simultaneous punchfests from Rocky than anything that's ever happened in real life. If you zoom in, you can see all the scar tissue around his eyes.























Gomez, straight from "The Contender" website. Probably taken during some heart-warming moment or the other, plus they likely put a microphone on the camera so you could hear an extra-loud "click."