An All Over The Map Win And Fighting The Battle Of Who's Got Anything Left

A short holiday week means I'm going to say everything I have to now just in case I don't get a chance later; see below for my thoughts on Joan Guzman-Humberto Soto, the upcoming crane-your-neck-at-the-car-crash brawl between Fernando Vargas and Ricardo Mayorga, and more.

Still absent a permanent name for my random musings, I dub today's post Shoe-Shinings (see comment #4817 here for a definition):

• Wrap-up: The reviews of Joan Guzman for his win over Humberto Soto in a highly anticipated 130 pound showdown are all over the map. Put me in the "mostly displeased" category. Round 2 was awesome, and there were some other great exchanges at times, but my guess is that Guzman at some point just decided he was more likely to win if he switched from slugger mode to hit and run mode. There were rounds where Guzman did some beautiful hit and run work -- where he was aggressive, took risks, but still looked mainly to score points then get out of harm's way. There were other rounds, alas, where he embodied the negative connotations of stick and move -- where he barely touched Soto and then plain old ran away. If Guzman hoped to get a big-money fight with Manny Pacquiao by merely scoring a victory, he failed. Pacquiao's promoter, Bob Arum, said
  nobody would want to see Guzman fight Pacquaio after the way he barely fought Soto late in the bout. It's too bad, because Guzman has unearthly natural athletic ability and clearly can stand and trade with big punchers if he so chooses. He clearly can be an entertaining fighter, as he was to about half the people who watched him Saturday night and as he was to me for about half of Saturday night. Now, in addition to being avoided because he is dangerous, he stands the risk of being avoided because he's polarizing. I think if he keeps fighting and beating good opponents, he deserves a big money fight no matter how much he bores the viewers. But he would've gotten it a lot faster, and would have had me calling for it this morning, if he had ended that fight with an exclamation point instead of a series of semi-colons. Overall, the fight wasn't what anyone hoped, but it was a good, solid battle, and as for Soto, despite some mistakes, I wouldn't mind seeing him again at all. The question, though, of "who's next" for both Soto and Guzman is just as murky and complex as it was beforehand. And, while I'm at it, here's my view on the dispute over the wide scoring margin issued by the judges: I had it eight rounds to four for Guzman.
• Preview: This Friday's clash between faded star Fernando Vargas and faded super-villain
  Ricardo Mayorga is probably going to break the record for "most entertaining hype doled out before two severely diminished fighters find out who's the most shot." First there was the highlight reel brawl at a news conference, prompting some wags to quip that based on his victory in Vargas-Mayorga I, they like Vargas in the sequel. Then there is the mountain of trash talk these two have heaped up, with Mayorga, the master, probably getting the better of Vargas, who's fared pretty well, really. "He's got a face only a gorilla mother could love" is a decent line for Vargas, but it doesn't compare to Mayorga's numerous "fat pig" jabs. This fight is at 166 lbs., higher than either have ever gone, largely because Vargas has struggled making weight at 154 lbs., 160 lbs., even 162 lbs., the original contracted weight. Egads. I'm leaning toward a Mayorga win, since his savage knockout losses haven't seemed as frequent or debilitating as Vargas', but Vargas has shown more in his recent losses than Mayorga did versus Oscar De La Hoya. My call is Vargas by late round knockout, since I have my doubts either man will carry much power up to weights that high. My confidence is low. My allegiance is to neither man dying in the ring.
• More Wrap-up: I liked the looks of bantamweight (118 lbs.) prospect Abner Mares in his very competitive and action-packed bout against unknown David Damian Marchiano. Marchiano lost decisively on the scorecards, but he gave a very talented young fighter all he could handle and more. Good show by both men.... If former heavyweight champ Hasim Rahman can't handle feather-fisted Zuri Lawrence, who has suffered back to back nasty KO losses, with ease, then he's far more diminished than even I had guessed, and I didn't have much faith in Rahman to begin with.... Jesus! That Jesus Soto Karass welterweight (147 lbs.) fight against Juan Buenida featured so much heavy fire it was like an early John Woo movie. I only caught a few rounds because I didn't know it was even on, but Soto Karass landed the CompuBox record for most punches landed, I learned, and I wasn't surprised. I now see why this Karass has a little bit of a following.
• Random: Why in the world anyone would want to see Pacquiao, a 130-pounder who is stretching the limits of how high he can move up in weight as it is now, go up to 147 lbs. to fight Oscar De La Hoya is beyond me, but Arum's apparently really trying to make it happen... Allan Green is way, way, way, way too big a step up for super middleweight (168 lbs.) prospect Andre Ward, if that really is the discussion. Really, I want Ward to step up his competition, but let's not get ridiculous. The talk of fighting Edison Miranda made more sense. On the other hand, I really like the idea of welterweight prospect Victor Ortiz taking on junior welterweight (140 lbs.) titlist Ricardo Torres. One guy, Torres, is more of a veteran and can punch really, really hard, and Ortiz, the other guy, is younger and a more all around fighter. I think it'd be a fun one to see and a good test for both... What I don't care to see is a rematch between Joel Casamayor and Jose Armando Santa Cruz. No matter what the blind judges saw in their first meeting, I know and anyone else who can see knows Santa Cruz won an incredibly boring affair, not one I'd care to like to revisit and that I doubt anyone would pay to watch. Here's hoping some kind of justice can come Santa Cruz' way somehow... I already love HBO's Mayweather/Hatton 24/7 documentary series. The more I see of Ricky Hatton's personality, the more I like him. The more I see of Floyd Mayweather's personality, the less I like him. If Mayweather stinks out the joint in a boring decision victory again in their Dec. 8 fight, I'm officially no longer a fan.

A Possible Cult Classic, Or Maybe A Big Hit In Its Own Right

Dangerous. Avoided. Underrated. Boxers with that kind of reputation often find themselves stuck in an unpleasant limbo where they can't lure big names into the ring. So if there are two of these feared types in one division, why not fight each other? That's the choice junior lightweights (130 lbs.) Joan Guzman and Humberto Soto made for Saturday night, in the kind of battle that usually creates a lot of action. Lots and lots. And, maybe, forces the big names to face the winner when the public says, "Wow, he's for real. He deserves a big shot."

Soto actually did lure a big name into the ring, in 2005, but he wasn't supposed to win. He was supposed to be a mere stepping stone for Rocky Juarez, a hot prospect with big knockout power. With five losses on his record, and with a lot of mediocre competition in a three-year winning streak leading up to the Juarez fight, who could have expected Soto to be such a big obstacle? When the tall-for-a-featherweight (126 lbs.) Soto stood and traded with Juarez in a slugfest, it became apparent that he was as for real a five-loss fighter gets. But nothing much happened for Soto after that. Suddenly, he was "dangerous." He won a rep for being "rugged" as a result of taking Juarez' big punches with relative ease, another label that makes big name boxers shy away. In a six-knockout barrage since his fight with Juarez, Soto has only lured one other big name into the ring, but he had the wrong first name: Bobby Pacquiao, the less talented brother of superstar Manny Pacquiao. Soto knocked him out.

Guzman got avoided, in part, because of his nickname: "Little Tyson." He also has the natural gifts that the workmanlike, disciplined Soto can only dream of -- speed, power, boxing ability. Lots of knockouts, too. The closest name to "big" that he's lured into the ring is Jorge Barrios, but Barrios ain't built like anyone else. He's as fearless a face-first slugger as you'll ever see, at any given moment likely to be on the delivering or receiving end of a huge knockout, and what's more, he wears these crazy goggles into the ring. In a fight that was competitive, but that most people thought Guzman clearly won, Guzman pulled out a close decision victory. That was last September, and it didn't get Guzman a big fight, either. His style presents some difficult challenges for the big names, which is why he's fighting at 130 lbs. these days instead of his apparently more natural 122 lbs.

With 130-pound stars Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez contemplating a move up to 135, career-wise, this may all be for naught for both Soto and Guzman. But it almost certainly won't all be for naught for the knowledgeable fans. Late 2007 has brought a remarkable series of quality match-ups, most of which have fully delivered on their hype. Soto-Guzman is the match-up that could be like the summer movie people in the know thought could turn into a big hit, but that nobody else could have guessed until it happened. We'll find out Saturday if the people in the know were right.

MY PREDICTION: Soto by clear, but competitive, decision. Soto has carried his power with him as he's moved up in weight. It's less clear that Guzman, without a knockout since 2004 but 17 at mostly lighter weights, has. Soto, too, seems to be the more solid, disciplined technician.
CONFIDENCE: 25%. I probably shouldn't be making a prediction on this one, truth be told, having caught very few of each man's fights. Guzman is the betting favorite, and his speed could be troublesome. Barrios said he felt Guzman's power, so maybe it's still there. But Barrios was weight-drained for their fight, so I'm giving the edge to Soto still.
ALLEGIANCE: None. I'm just looking forward to a big ol' brawl. This is one of the more hotly anticipated of the year among hardcore fans, pitting two boxer-punchers -- guys with skill, but guys who hit hard -- against one another. Ring Magazine ranks Guzman the third best junior lightweight and Soto the fifth best, in a division that's a notch or two below welterweight (147 lbs.) in overall quality but still pretty loaded. Best of all, while both guys can do some of the pretty stuff -- dodging punches, fighting smartly -- they both have exhibited tendencies toward slugging it out.




















Way more colorful than the sepia-tone posters that seem to be in vogue, yeah?

Put Down The Hater Tots

Two entertaining, meaningful fights this past weekend in one night to kick off a November chock full of them...

JOE CALZAGHE-MIKKEL KESSLER

Enough is enough. Anyone who doubts Joe Calzaghe after his super middleweight (168 lbs.) unification win Saturday over Mikkel Kessler is drinking Haterade while soaking in Hateration Bath Salts and reading Hater Monthly magazine. And he did it in a barn burner, too.

I gave four or five rounds to Kessler, more than any of the judges, based on his harder punches in many of the rounds. But Calzaghe clearly won a string of the middle rounds that put him over the top. It surely was discouraging to Kessler when Calzaghe hurt him with a body shot, and it surely distressed him when Calzaghe took all of his best shots with ease, but I think Kessler became most discouraged in the round after Calzaghe's pop/trainer told him to "shine" -- meaning, I think, to "shoe shine." Those annoying flurries cemented that Calzaghe wasn't going away.

greatness. On that point I agreed with Kessler fought well; this loss wasn't about his flaws, so much as it was about Calzaghe'sHBO's commentators. And HBO's commentators made the same point I did about how impossible it is to prepare for Calzaghe. There's no one like him, with those awkward-looking punches from strange angles. But to me, the biggest revelation was that Calzaghe can take a serious, serious punch. Kessler hit him with some amazing uppercuts that would've put an elephant in a coma, but Calzaghe acted like he didn't even notice them. He even took a hailstorm of blows from Kessler in the 12th round that looked utterly intolerable. By the way, that Kessler came out swinging for the fences in the 12th round, knowing he needed a knockout to win, showed his mettle. As obvious as it is when fighters in a hole with the judges need to try for the knockout, it just doesn't happen as often as it should. Champions, though, real fighters, do it more often than not.

This was two excellent fighters fighting excellently. I think it lived up to the expectations, if it didn't surpass them, but lacked some of the drama of this year's other major unification fight, the Kelly Pavlik-Jermain Taylor showdown at middleweight (160 lbs). But it made up for it with some fascinating stuff strategy-wise, and the determination both men showed to win.

Next for the winner: If Calzaghe defeated Kessler this soundly, there is only one man left who is even within shouting distance of being able to beat him, and that man is light heavyweight (175 lbs.) king Bernard Hopkins. No one solves a puzzle as meticulously as Hopkins, and Calzaghe's certainly a puzzle. There's a chance this fight could get derailed on logistics, such as whether it's in America or Great Britain. I personally say it's time for Calzaghe to fight outside Wales, but both men clearly want to fight each other, so let's make it happen.
Next for the loser: Again, as the HBO commentators said, Kessler could win back all the belts he lost if Calzaghe moves up to light heavyweight. I'd like to see him in a fight with Lucian Bute, especially. I think this is the kind of loss that makes a fighter better, not worse -- Kessler had never experienced serious adversity in his career. He should be back, and he should be good and improved when he comes back.

JUAN MANUEL MARQUEZ-ROCKY JUAREZ

I don't think the cut opened up on Rocky Juarez' eyelid in the first round of his junior lightweight (130 lbs.) fight Saturday against Juan Manuel Marquez had any impact on the eventual outcome. I think, head butt or no, Marquez would have won; the only difference might have been how simply the win came. I gave every single round to Marquez, but if I was the referee, it wouldn't have lasted 12 of them. That cut was icky, and dangerous. At any moment, I expected Juarez' eyelid to fly off into the middle rows.

Say what you will about Juarez, but he's a good fighter who seriously tested Marco Antonio Barrera, one of Marquez' peers among the great Mexican fighters of the last decade or so. Barrera was younger then in 2005 than Marquez is now, and Marquez routed Juarez. I totally buy Marquez' claim that he's in his prime, even though he's 34, because the old version who emphasized defense preserved things for the new version of Marquez, the one who emphasizes offense while retaining his defensive skill. Certainly he's in his prime from the standpoint of his entertainment value.

Next for the winner: Boxing fans should take up a collection to hire anyone who might ever come into contact with Marquez or Manny Pacquiao and pay them to repeatedly say each other's names, like in the scene from "Being John Malkovich" where everyone only says the word "Malkovich." "Pacquaio Pacquiao? Pacquiao," the waiter should say to Marquez. "Marquez Marquez Marquez! Marquez, Marquez," the drug store clerk should say to Pacquaio. We must, must, must have a rematch of the amazing 2004 draw between the two of them. I'm hard-pressed to think of a more important fight.
Next for the loser: I wish I knew what to make of Juarez. He's clearly got talent. Maybe he needs to stay away from hall of fame-bound Mexicans for a while. Maybe he needs to go back to 126 lbs., which is a more natural weight for him, and take on Robert Guerrero, the fighter he was originally scheduled to take on before the Marquez bout opened up for him. I'm not going to write Juarez just yet, though, since he's only lost to all-time greats in Marquez and Barrera, plus an A-level fighter in Humberto Soto.

The Big Little Fight Nobody's Talking About Could Be A Scorcher

Across the ocean this weekend, they're on the verge of hosting a fight that might -- might -- break the all-time attendance record for an indoor boxing event. So it's no wonder that the boxing world is paying closer attention to the super middleweight (168 lbs.) battle scheduled in Great Britain between Joe Calzaghe and Mikkel Kessler than they are the meeting this weekend in the U.S. of A. between junior lightweights (130 lbs.) Juan Manuel Marquez and Rocky Juarez.

Don't get me wrong, I've got a tingling feeling in the pit of my stomach about Calzaghe-Kessler, and it's still days away. I'll get to that fight soon enough. But let's not overlook Marquez-Juarez. The most important thing about it is that its outcome could decide whether we get one of the most meaningful fights in all of boxing, a rematch between Marquez and Manny Pacquiao. But Marquez-Juarez could be a scorcher in its own right.

Marquez is probably my favorite fighter. He basically has every tool in the toolbox -- he throws astonishing combinations, has enough power to win by pretty knockout, looks good even when he's playing defense and has established his badass bona fides. His tendency to play it safe on defense has vanished entirely, silencing one of the most common criticisms of Marquez. The other most common criticism, which came in the form of a question about whether he had a boxing heart to go with his undisputed boxing brain, disappeared following his exciting 2004 brawl with Pacquiao. Pacquiao bum-rushed him in the first round, knocking Marquez down three times and making anyone watching think, "Man, this Pacquiao is something," and "That settles it -- Marquez isn't even in the same league" with contemporary Mexican legends Erik Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera. Then, Marquez cooly and brutally began dissecting his faster, harder-hitting, more limited foe. Lots of those rounds after the first were pretty close, and the result at the end is still hotly disputed, but by the time it was announced as a draw, there was no way you could question Marquez' guts and unflappability. Some bad business decisions led to Marquez' team dismissing a rematch, then taking a bad fight overseas against Chris John that was scored as a victory for John but that most everyone thought Marquez won. But Marquez began scratching his way back up the mountain, and by the time he beat Barrera this year, finally, he had cemented his position as one of the five best fighters around, if weight class is ignored -- third best, according to The Ring. And he did it in a victory over Barrera that is a legitimate candidate for fight of the year in 2007.

Rocky Juarez, a former Olympian and highly-touted up-and-comer, was left for the vultures after he was upset in 2005 by Humberto Soto. But then he beat the tar out of the aforementioned Barrera in a 2006 fight first scored a draw, then a win for Barrera after some strange "calculation error," but many -- myself included -- thought it should have been a victory for Juarez. Since then, though, Juarez has failed to capitalize. He was thoroughly outboxed in his rematch with Barrera, then won a yawner against Jose Hernandez this year. But before we again banish him to the desert, let's meditate on the fact that Soto has proven since the upset that he's a far better fighter than his five losses at the time suggested, and that Juarez was a youthful underdog against Barrera. At this point, though, he is what he is: a dangerous puncher who can change a fight with one blow, as he did in 2003's consensus knockout of the year; a guy who can take a hellacious punch himself; someone with fast hands; but a plodder who just doesn't punch enough, a fact that sometimes gets him in trouble from a judging and entertainment standpoint.

If Juarez wins, he will have toppled a pound-for-pound great and proven his critics wrong. If Marquez wins, he will have cleared a path to the biggest money fight of his career. But if Juarez loses, he may not get another chance at a big fight, Pacquiao moves on to something else and an aging great will likely have trouble climbing once again to the top. I do think this will be a good fight -- both men have a lot on the line, and there will be intrigue in whether Juarez can land something big when Marquez takes risks to do damage.

MY PREDICTION: Marquez by decision. If Barrera beats Juarez, and Marquez beats Barrera, that stands to favor Marquez. Marquez has the same attributes Barrera had that troubled Juarez, but Marquez has faster hands than Barrera, one of Juarez's original advantages over Barrera.
CONFIDENCE: 80%. The stand-and-trade strategy of Marquez we've come to know and love the last few fights could backfire against the powerful Juarez, who also has the edge in age, 27 years young to Marquez' old-for-130 pounds 34. But I suspect if Marquez gets into a bind, he'll stick and move his way to a win to preserve the millions he might win vs. Pacquiao.
MY ALLEGIANCE: I already gave it away, didn't I? Marquez for his style and skill, over Juarez' power and plod. But even if I didn't like Marquez so much, I'd want him to win to make that Pacquiao rematch happen.













As good a fight as it was when Marquez and Pacquiao met, I only want to see one of these warriors raising their hands in victory in a rematch early next year. So I don't want to see any hijinks from Mr. Juarez Saturday.

Due to High Expectations, Seven Punch Combo Is Providing Needles for Your Balloons

Robbed of the ability to make predictions on a handful of big fights that were recently postponed, and feeling the anxiety all boxing fans are feeling these days that more postponements could tarnish the outstanding fall and winter lineup of exciting matches, I decided to turn my predictive powers (such as they are) to possible future postponements.

This is not intended to be some totally flippant exercise. Partially flippant, maybe, but there's reason for partial seriousness about this, too. In August, the season ahead raised expectations of fight fans, including myself, to unrealistic heights. Those expectations have been punctured by the delay of three major, or at least meaningful, bouts: Vargas-Mayorga, Klitschko-McCline and Marquez-Juarez. Two have been moved to other dates, with Marquez-Juarez landing on free Showtime, a blessing in disguise since I wasn't planning on buying it for $44.95 on HBO PPV as originally scheduled. Klitschko-McCline is gone for good, with Vitali and Jameel, respectively, heading their separate ways.

But perhaps they need a little extra puncturing, these expectations. I've always found myself better off with low expectations exceeded, rather than high expectations diminished. After they graduated from cult favorites to one-hit wonders in the 1990s, my favorite music group, the Flaming Lips, churned out a quick EP entitled "Due to High Expectations, the Flaming Lips are Providing Needles for Your Balloons." A few years later, they delivered an all-time great album, "The Soft Bulletin." I'm rooting for things to go the way of the Flaming Lips -- expectations exceeded -- but since a number of these stellar fights ahead stand a decent (or greater) chance of postponement, I hereby provide needles for your balloons.

Joe Calzaghe-Mikkel Kessler
Nov. 3
Super middleweight (168 lbs.)
Risk factors: There may not be a more brittle fighter than Calzaghe. It's amazing that someone who can take such blows in the ring, and deliver them with hands that are serially broken, is so prone to match-canceling injuries.
Chances of postponement: Slightly worse than even. To the point that one writer -- I can't remember whom -- was recently pining for Calzaghe to be hermetically sealed until November. But Joe has been more stable of late, so maybe hermetic sealing is a step too far.

Jermain Taylor-Kelly Pavlik
Sept. 29
Middleweight (160 lbs.)
Risk factors: Both men are tall middleweights -- Taylor stands at 6'1" and Pavlik tops 6'2" -- who have complained they suffer tremendously trying to chop themselves down to 160. The weight problem is such that they almost had this one at super-middleweight. If this fight is postponed, it would be disenchanting, since it's the first truly big fight of the season.
Chances of postponement: Minor, but significant. Reports out of the camps that both guys on track to make weight by next Saturday are positive. But Fernando Vargas was bragging about how good he felt trying to get down to his proper weight just days before he postponed his battle with Ricardo Mayorga.

Fernando Vargas-Ricardo Mayorga
Nov. 23
Between middleweight and super middleweight (162 lbs.)
Risk factors: That it's already been postponed once ain't good. Vargas turned up anemic along the way to losing about 100 lbs. Mayorga isn't a model of reliability himself, since he almost bailed out of his fight with Oscar De La Hoya at the last minute last year.
Chances of postponement: Awfully likely, although a second postponement would probably equal cancellation. Is anyone making sure Fernando isn't blimping out right now? I wouldn't be surprised if he still looks like Eddie Murphy in a fat suit come late October.

Roy Jones, Jr.-Felix Trinidad
Jan. 26
Between super middleweight and light heavyweight (175 lbs.)
Risk factors: Jones is erratic as hell. He's constantly pulling out of proposed fights, even eschewing big paydays.
Chances of postponement: Meh. Jones needs this payday more than any other, since he's on the downside of his career. I doubt he'll risk it, but I don't count out the possibility.

Humberto Soto-Joan Guzman
Nov. 13
Junior lightweight (130 lbs.)
Risk factors: Soto decided, against the advice of everyone, to take a tune-up fight this past weekend, jeopardizing this bout if he lost or even if he endured a deep cut that wouldn't heal in time.
Chances of postponement: Soto-Guzman looks safe. Humberto won his weekend tune-up easily, and reports are that he was hardly scratched. Joan, don't get any bright ideas for your own tune-up.

Juan Manuel Marquez-Rocky Juarez
Nov. 3
Junior lightweight (130 lbs.)
Risk factors: This fight appears cursed. First, Jorge Barrios dropped out with injuries, promoting Juarez to his replacement. Then, Marquez developed an infection on his fist. Seriously, how does that happen? Hasn't anyone in Marquez' camp heard of Neosporin?
Chances of postponement: Depends on your level of superstition. I'm going to say I think this one's had enough misfortune and is going to happen.

Sultan Ibragimov-Evander Holyfield
Oct. 13
Heavyweight (200 lbs. +)
Risk factors: Holyfield's already a replacement for the fishily-injured-then-training-a-couple-weeks-later Ruslan Chagaev, so it, too, has a track record. Holyfield has worked through his endless health problems, from heart conditions to damaged shoulders to freaking hepatitis, for chrissakes, but his history and advanced age are cause for hand-wringing.
Chances of postponement: Not very likely. Ibragimov needs to beat Holyfield in the highest-profile bout of his career to capture the public's imagination, and Holyfield's on something of a holy mission to become a five-time heavyweight champ.

Oleg Maskaev-Sam Peter
Oct 6
Heavyweight (200 lbs. +)
Risk factors: Maskaev and his handlers did virtually everything they could not to take this fight, and conventional wisdom is that they're worried the aging Maskaev is going to get splattered in a high-risk, low-reward battle that could end his marketability just as it had reached its improbable peak.
Chances of postponement: Low. Peter's team played hardball to force this match to happen. Anyone think that if it's postponed any other word besides "lawsuit" is the first to pop into the Peter crew's mind?

Vitali Klitschko-anyone
No date
Heavyweight (200 lbs. +)
Risk factors: The last few years of Vitali's career are marked by fight postponements, cancellations, retirements and un-retirements. That he's returned to training already after screwing up his back may bode well, but I rate...
Chances of postponement: ...at almost certain. Too bad, too. Vitali has always been the more passionate of the formidable Klitschko brother duo, but his big brother Vladimir is just not as fragile. Sorry to say it, but Vitali is an old gray mare in boxing years, and maybe worse, because he just can't climb into the ring anymore come fight night.

Kid Rock-Tommy Lee
No date
No weight limit set
Risk factors: For one, the fight just hasn't been set yet. For another, proposals to put feuding rock stars into the boxing ring have traditionally gone nowhere. Remember Axl Rose-Vince Neil?
Chances of postponement: I don't think this fight is going to happen. I hear tell the little one they had at the Video Music Awards wasn't much to watch anyway.

Miguel Cotto-Shane Mosley; Floyd Mayweather-Ricky Hatton; Jean-Marc Mormeck-David Haye; Juan Diaz-Julio Diaz; Manny Pacquiao-Marco Antonio Barrera
Assorted dates
Assorted weight classes
Risk factors: Thankfully, not very many. All of these guys are pros who have little history or delaying or canceling bouts, even when they've had injuries or weight problems. Could Juan Diaz, college student/boxer, oversleep studying for a test the next week? Could Ricky "Fatton" spend too much time in the pubs? Could Shane Mosley injure his tooth again, the one he wiggled after KOing Vargas as he explained why he couldn't fight Mayweather in the fall? Could Floyd strain an achilles doing the foxtrot on "Dancing With The Stars?" Maybe, but I doubt it. No, I think all these big, exciting fights are pretty close to a sure thing.
Chances that I'll wuss out and end on a positive note: Already did.